Boston Red Sox Top 5 Prospects
Before the season, I said the Red Sox had the 3rd best farm system in baseball, behind the Rays and A’s. The graduations of Clay Buchholz, Jacoby Ellsbury and Justin Masterson have probably dropped them a little, but with six players in the Top 100 this system is still very, very good.
1. 1B Lars Anderson
Who?: Anderson’s .317/.408/.513 line as a 20-year-old in High-A should be very impressive, but because he was hitting in Lancaster, it’s not spectacular. There’s more than enough to like about Anderson as a hitter, but he’s still mostly potential rather than reality, especially in the power department. He has recently been promoted to AA Portland, which is a more neutral, even pitching-oriented park. Anderson’s plate approach is excellent, and nobody expects his defense to be good, he just needs to add power.
Projection: If Anderson impresses down the stretch run as a 20-year-old in AA, it would go a long way in cementing Anderson as one of baseball’s hitting prospects. Even if he doesn’t, it won’t hurt him much, if at all; the dude’s 20. With the Lowell-Youk-Ortiz trio assuring that Boston’s 1B/DH spot will be filled, the Sox won’t rush to bring Anderson up before, say, Opening Day 2010. When he gets here, he’s likely to be a really excellent hitter.
2. RHSP Michael Bowden
Who?: Bowden didn’t really come out of nowhere, as he was a respectable prospect before the season started, but he definitely broke out in a big way. Bowden showcases mainly a low-90’s fastball and a plus curve, but his calling card is his command. Bowden struggled in his AA promotion last year, but in High-A he struck out 26.1% of batters while walking a miniscule 4.5%; this year in AA he struck out 25.0% of batters while walking 6.0%.
Projection: Bowden was promoted to AAA this week. Bowden will likely be a major league starter the first time there’s an open rotation spot in 2009, or perhaps even sometime this year, especially if Buchholz’s struggles continue. He’ll be somewhere in the #2-3 starter range.
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Baltimore Orioles Top 5 Prospects
Everybody likes lists, right? So for the next… well… 17 years in all likelihood, I’ll be going over every team’s top 5 prospects, alphabetically and starting with the AL. Shall we?
1. C Matt Wieters
Who?: I suppose it’s fitting that we start this off with the #1 prospect, period. You’d think that I’ve verbally gushed over Wieters enough over the last little while… guess not. Wieters is just the absolute epitome of a prospect. Hit for average? Yep. Walk? Uh-huh. Power? Definitely. Defense? Sure. Premium position? Check. Healthy? Affirmative. Find me something wrong with him. I dare you.
Projection: Considering that the O’s current starting catcher has a .684 OPS and Wieters is tearing it up in AA, the most likely scenario is that Wieters will be the opening day starter in 2009. If not, it’s hard to imagine that he won’t have that spot by mid-season. Whenever he gets here, he’ll be an instant impact player.
2. RHSP Chris Tillman
Who?: One of the prospects received in the Bedard deal, Tillman highlights an excellent trio of pitching prospects for the O’s that rivals any combination of young pitchers out there - Joba/Hughes/Kennedy, Cahill/Anderson/Inoa/Simmons, Price/McGee/Davis/Hellickson, etc. Tillman is only 20 and putting up a promising showing in AA, with only his inconsistent command holding him back. Tillman shows an excellent hard fastball and a real plus-curve, with a kind of meh change-up so far.
Projection: Tillman could actually be in contention for a roster spot on Opening Day, but I sure hope he isn’t. Tillman is very young and still very raw, so he could certainly use up to another full year in the minors. It’s not like the Orioles are going anywhere next year anyway, except for perhaps another mystical charge for .500. There’s still quite a bit of bust factor in Tillman, due to his control issues, but at the very least he should be a major league starter. At the most, Tillman could be as good as anybody.
2008 Mid-Season Top 100 Prospects
A lot can happen in half a season, even when it comes to long-term assets such as prospects. Besides the entry of the 2008 draftees, three months can greatly affect ‘veteran’ prospect rankings. They will not necessarily make or break a career, but all of the prospects had questions attached to their rankings, and many of them have been answered whether in the positive or the negative.
Some prospects’ rankings might not quite jive with where I indicated they would end up. This happens for one of three reasons. First of all, I could simply have changed my mind about a player, or perhaps I was made aware of some information that I did not have before. Second, something may have changed between a prospect’s review and today. For example, Desmond Jennings going down with his third injury of the year is extremely frustrating. On the positive side, Chris Carter of the A’s has continued an absolutely ridiculous hitting tear since he was covered with the first batch of prospects.
Third, the make-up of the list may have an effect. For instance, I believe that this top ten is not as impressive as that of the pre-season list, but I think that the 10-30 range is far stronger. The reason for the latter is the difference in draft quality. Only 3 of the top 25 pre-season prospects were from the 2007 draft; 6 of the top 25 of this list were drafted this year, and Michael Inoa is essentially the seventh member of that group. This should help explain why prospects like Travis Snider and Desmond Jennings are ranked where they are; they would certainly be ranked higher on the pre-season list.
Before the season, the Rays had far and away the best farm system of any team in baseball. Now, one team has made that close: The Oakland Athletics. The two systems have gone in completely different directions in a rather short time. The Rays’ top prospect (Longoria) graduated and others like McGee, Davis and Brignac have disappointed somewhat. The A’s have received outstanding performances from highly-ranked prospects Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, while unranked Sean Doolittle has burst onto the scene, and they signed ubermensch prospect Michael Inoa. The gap before the season was so large that the Rays might still have the best farm system in baseball, but I would have no problem giving that title to the A’s.
The best prospects today reside at opposite points of the defensive spectrum, and 1B and C prospects clutter the list. The explosion of 1B prospects is easily explained by the fact that that position housed most of the best prospects in this past draft. The influx of catchers has no other explanation other than the fact that a lot of them are having breakout years. Of course, many C prospects are just 1B prospects in disguise.
Unlike Baseball America’s updated 100 prospects, which does not include anybody signed this year or anybody currently in the majors, the only requirement for eligibity on this list is to be rookie-eligible.
Onto the players. Wieters possesses such an awesome combination of offense and defense at a premium position that I never seriously considered ranking anybody else as #1. Matt LaPorta is simply the best hitter in the minors, while David Price is the best pitcher, although Max Scherzer’s mind-boggling season has made it close.
Enjoy.
Top 100 Prospects Review: The Top Ten!
Here we go, la crème de la crème. (What does that mean anyway? The cream of the cream? Huh?).
10. OF Travis Snider (Toronto Blue Jays)
Year In Review: Honestly, a bit of a disappointment. Skills-wise, Snider and LaPorta were rather similar prospects before the season started. They were both guys with a ton of power and hitting ability, no significant defensive value but who had shown a propensity for striking out in their professional career. (LaPorta’s was in a rather insignificant sample size, of course). They went very different ways. LaPorta returned to being the overall offensive beast of his college days while Snider’s strikeouts only worsened. He’s still very young with a lot of power and a lot of potential. However, he’s very likely to be either a DH or a bad defender in the majors, so for a guy like that to be this high on the list, he can’t be striking out 30% of the time. For the moment…
Prospect Status: Down.
9. 3B Andy LaRoche (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Year In Review: Have I mentioned that I hate Dodgers management? I really, really do. LaRoche has done nothing but mash at every minor league level, only to be relegated to a BENCH role in the majors! Behind such luminaries as Nomar Garciaparra and Blake freaking DeWitt. I mean, at least with Nomar you had some idea of what Colletti was thinking. (Veteran presence! Grit! Leadership! That young star is way too risky. Now go get me Juan Pierre.) But Blake DeWitt? This guy is a rookie with no minor league production and a .700 OPS in the majors. I guess it’s okay to be a young guy as long as you’re a cra - er, gritty young guy. Jesus. The only real concern with LaRoche is the continuing injury problems, but beyond that you can’t fault him just because the Dodgers don’t know what they’re doing.
Prospect Status: Neutral, graduated.
8. C Matt Wieters (Baltimore Orioles)
Year In Review: Phew, I needed something like this to cheer me up. Wieters has had an absolute monster season. He dominated the Carolina League for way too long to the tune of .345/.448/.576 until he was finally promoted to AA, which hasn’t slowed him down at all. (Sample size alert!). In 18 games, Wieters has hit .344/.417/.578. If you combined his stats from the two levels, Wieters is a catcher with an OPS over 1.000 in his first professional season. The power isn’t likely as good as it’s been so far. With 18 HR and only 14 2B, it’s probable that some of the HR have been lucky scrapers, and a couple of them will start to turn into 2B down the line. That’s just a nitpick. Beyond his awesome offense, there’s defense as well, despite being built like a 1B. (6′5″ 230). He’s no Yadier Molina or anything, but he has a rocket arm and he’s very athletic, making it unlikely that a position change will be necessary apart from giving him a rest to keep him in the line-up.
Prospect Status: Slightly up.
7. 1B Daric Barton (Oakland Athletics)
Year In Review: Ick. Let me preface this by saying that Barton’s only 22, and he has plenty of time to turn it around. His major league debut has been an absolute disaster. The walks are still there, but that’s about it. The power hasn’t developed yet, with only 15 of his 65 hits going for extra bases. More concerning is that Barton, who has always had perhaps the best plate approach in the minor leagues, is now striking out at a slightly alarming 22% rate. This isn’t altogether strange. Without his power developing, pitchers have no fear of challenging Barton with pitches in the strike zone. With Barton’s uber-patient approach, he is getting deep into counts, with many of them being pitcher-friendly, leading to too many strikeouts. He doesn’t need to be a 30-HR guy, but he needs to be *some* sort of power threat. Perhaps the best place for him right now is Sacramento.
Prospect Status: Down, graduated.
Top 100 Prospects Review (20-11)
20. LHSP Brett Anderson (Oakland Athletics)
Year In Review: Anderson was reputed as having the highest ceiling of any player acquired in the Haren trade, and he’s lived up to that billing. Anderson throws all of his pitches with average velocity and excellent control, but the most important quality is that everything moves down, sharply. Anderson had no problem with any of to the true outcomes, on his way to an excellent 80 Ks and 18 BB in 74 High-A innings to go with an excellent ground ball rate. Anderson has since been promoted, putting up one excellent start and two shaky showing in AA. Anderson shouldn’t face many obstacles on his way to becoming a front of the rotation starter for Oakland.
Prospect Status: Up.
19. Fautino De Los Santos (Oakland Athletics)
Year In Review: DLS has gone the opposite way of Anderson. He was hit rather hard early on, but perhaps that wasn’t really his fault, as he was shut down with elbow soreness at the beginning of May, and underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of the month. It’s the same deal as any Tommy John victim, you have to wait until he’s healthy and go from there. Until then, caution.
Prospect Status: Down.
18. CF Cameron Maybin (Florida Marlins)
Year In Review: Maybin has all the tools you can want, and most of the time the production has been there as well. The only question there has ever really been is his penchant for striking out. That has slowly improved this year:
April: 37 K in 109 PA
May: 35 K in 120 PA
June: 21 K in 109 PA
If this trend is a sign of things to come, watch out.
Prospect Status: Slightly up.
17. 2B Matt Antonelli (San Diego Padres)
Year In Review: Antonelli’s year hasn’t been nearly as bad as it looks, as he’s been victimized by a .230 BABIP. The average should be there, and the plate approach is as good as that of any prospect out there. The most distressing thing about this year has been the disappearance of the power surge of 2007. After 21 HR and 51 XBH in 629 PA last year, Antonelli has only 3 HR and 17 XBH in 373 PA this year. He should still be a very good offensive 2B, but the dreams of Antonelli being a 20-20 guy with a .400 OBP are likely dead.
Prospect Status: Down.
The Harden Trade
There was a prospect trade involving the A’s. Did anybody think I wasn’t going to talk about this?
Christina Kahrl over at BP is far from a fan of this trade, but I think she’s looking at this the wrong way. Perhaps people’s hopes were brought up after Jayson Stark suggested a Harden package would have to be similar in stature to the smörgåsbord of talent Beane got for Haren. (Anderson, Carter, Cunningham, Smith, Eveland, Gonzalez - Wow!).
In reality, this trade is likely more than what Harden was worth. Now, I love Harden. He’s a good Canadian kid who’s as exciting to watch as any pitcher in baseball, and I hope he pitches another 2000 innings on his way to Cooperstown. The reality is that in half a season, Harden’s pitched more innings than any year since 2005. This was Harden being sold at the apex of his value. (Since 2005, at least). If the A’s got this package for Harden before the season started, it would have been an absolute coup.
Now, on to the actual players involved.
Top 100 Prospects Review (30-21)
30. OF Jason Heyward (Atlanta Braves)
Year In Review: I’m such a fan of this guy. He just turned 18 this year, so it’s as if a guy was drafted out of high school, placed in full-season baseball and hit .340/.400/.497. Obviously a BA like that requires some luck with BABIP, and he has a very unsustainable .397. However, he has a 22% line drive rate (that’s into Mike Young/Derek Jeter territory) so you would expect his BABIP to be well above the usual .300. With 50 Ks and 32 BB in 326 PAs, his plate approach is very advanced. The home run power isn’t there yet, with only 8, but at this age it rarely is. He will even steal you a lot of bases, going 12/13 so far this year. This guy is just an all-around ballplayer.
Prospect Status: Slightly up.
29. 1B Angel Villalona (San Francisco Giants)
Year In Review: Villalona has the hitting ability of Heyward, and he’s a year younger, but he’s not nearly as advanced. He has all the power you could want out of a seventeen-year-old and then some, as 27 of his 66 hits have gone for extra bases, including 10 HR in 276 games. Unfortunately, in 291 PAs he has 77 Ks and 13 BB, neither of which being what you’d hope for. However, he’s still very raw with a ceiling as high as anybody on this list, so it’s not like his career is over.
Prospect Status: Slightly down.
28. LHSP Jacob McGee (Tampa Bay Rays)
Year In Review: McGee and Wade Davis both had the same unexpected loss of command at the same level, with Mcgee putting up 67 Ks and 35 BB to 325 batters. In McGee’s case, the reason may have been found, as he will undergo Tommy John Surgery. (Today, in fact). Born 08/06/86, with a likely return date of late next season, he’ll still be plenty young enough, it all depends on how he reacts to the surgery.
Prospect Status: Down.
27. 3B Mike Moustakas (Kansas City Royals)
Year In Review: Moustakas appeared to be well on his way to a terribly disappointing season, putting up a .479 OPS in April. However, he’s put up .835 and .783 OPSes in May and June which have brought him back to respectability. Moustakas was recently moved to 3B, as was inevitable, but he certainly has both the arm and the bat to play there, as he seems to be everything the scouting reports expected him to be. He makes good contact (54 in 347 PA) and already has excellent power (12 2B/2 3B/12 HR). Even his walk total of 25 is about average. Expect this guy to tear it up for a long time.
Prospect Status: Neutral.
The Sabathia Trade
I’ll take a bit of a break from reviewing the top 100 prospects to talk about the prospects involved in the big trade. If you’ve been living under a rock, the Indians traded CC Sabathia to the Brewers for OF Matt LaPorta, RHSP Rob Bryson, LHP Zach Jackson and a PTBNL which will almost certainly turn out to Taylor Green. The Indians have generally been one of the better organizations in baseball, so let’s see how they made out on this one!
Rob Bryson may be the most intriguing player in the deal. He has a very good low-mid 90’s fastball sitting in the ~93 range and a decent breaking ball. Scouts suggest that he is very raw, but the dominating production suggests otherwise. Bryson has faced 453 batters in his professional career. The results:
143 K
32 BB
5 HR
All three of those are elite numbers. Bryson is still far from the majors, but if his production and potential continue to match, he could be an excellent grab for the Indians.
Zach Jackson is a name familiar to Jays fans; he was their supplemental 1st round pick in 2004 and was traded to the Brewers in the Overbay deal. He’s done nothing but struggle, striking out very few and being hit all over the park. He’s been moved to the bullpen, so perhaps the Indians see him as a potential fringe reliever or even a LOOGY, but I wouldn’t expect very much from him.
Top 100 Prospects Review (40-31)
Now we’re really going to get into the big hits and big disappointments.
40. RHSP Homer Bailey (Cincinnati Reds)
Year In Review: Bailey may be a poster-boy for big disappointments. He just isn’t the uber-prospect he was touted to be a couple of years ago. He will have a big league career as a starter, I’m certain; he still has decent strikeout ability and control. He’s not a complete bust, but he’s not going to be winning any Cy Youngs either.
Prospect Status: Down, graduated.
39. LHSP Adam Miller (Cleveland Indians)
Year In Review: Miller is extremely frustrating. He’s always been a good pitcher when healthy, but when does that ever happen? He’s out for the season with some icky finger-tendon stuff. I’ve always been squeamish about fingers. Anywho, we just have to continue the waiting game with Miller. The best ability is availability, and that’s the one Miller lacks most.
Prospect Status: Down.
38. 1B Lars Anderson (Boston Red Sox)
Year In Review: Anderson is having a somewhat deceiving big season. At the age of 20 and playing in High-A, a .313/.406/.493 line should be excellent. However, he’s hitting in one of the best hitter’s parks in the California League, perhaps the biggest hitter’s league in the minors. That SLG actually indicates some real concern about his power. However, his plate approach is legitimately great, with 54 strikeouts and 42 walks in 318 PA. At 6′4″ and 215 lbs, I would bet on Anderson developing power to go along with that approach.
Prospect Status: Neutral.
37. SS Carlos Triunfel (Seattle Mariners)
Year In Review: A .245/.300/.318 line may not seem like it indicates improvement, but in Triunfel’s case it might. From last year, Triunfel has slightly improved his strikeout rate (14.8% to 10.5%), walk rate (4.2% to 6.7%) and his XBH% (20% to 22%). As an 18-year-old in High-A, he’s been okay, but to be honest I was kind of hoping that he’d really explode and hit something like .310/.360/.450. He has a ton of tools and a good chance of harnessing them, but for the time being…
Prospect Status: Slightly down.
Top 100 Prospects Review (50-41)
50. LHSP Frank Morales (Colorado Rockies)
Year In Review: A combined 57 walks and 41 strikeouts (not a typo, unlike the rest of the things on this site) is not the way to go. Morales has all the stuff you’re looking for, but when your control is this terrible, I don’t care.
Prospect Status: Way down, graduated.
49. RHRP Edwar Ramirez (New York Yankees)
Year In Review: The guy with possibly the best change-up in professional baseball has put it to good use… for some reason the Yankees started him in AAA where he struck out 13 of 31 batters he faced compared to only one walk. He hasn’t been quite as dominant in the majors, but a 25% strikeout rate with decent control is fine by me.
Prospect Status: Neutral, graduated.
48. C J.R. Towles (Houston Astros)
Year In Review: I just don’t know what happened. His bat just absolutely disappeared this year. However, since being sent down to the majors in June, it’s come back. He’s hitting .279/.380/.574 in 71 PAs with good strikeout and walk rates… don’t lose hope!
Prospect Status: Slightly down, graduated.
47. LHSP Aaron Laffey (Cleveland Indians)
Year In Review: Up to May 31st, Laffey was having an excellent year. In 65.2 combined innings between AAA and the majors, Laffey had 40 Ks, 14 BBs and only 1 HR allowed, the line you’d expect from a control/ground ball specialist. In 35.1 June innings, Laffey has a line of 12 Ks, 12 BBs and 6 HRs. At 23, one bad month is nothing to worry about.
Prospect Status: Neutral, graduated.
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