Texas Rangers Top 5 Prospects
Just a little over a year ago, this was easily a bottom ten farm system. What changed? Well, trading for two top 15 prospects as well as drafting another certainly helps. The Rangers are now among the top farm systems in baseball.
1. 1B Justin Smoak
Who?: Smoak is the best college hitting prospect since… well… Matt LaPorta last year. But that’s still pretty good! He had absolutely fantastic college production, with a career 62 HR, 151 BB and 107 K while improving every year from his debut season’s .303/.407/.586 and 1:1 K:BB ratio. Smoak is a switch-hitter who can rake from both sides of the plate, but he hits RHP better than LHP. He’s not good defensively, but with that bat, I just don’t care.
Projection: An offensive monster.
2. RHSP Neftali Feliz
Who?: Probably the biggest reason the Braves will regret the Teixeira trade. Salty and Andrus have been disappointing, while Harrison was never expected to be a centerpiece, but Feliz is the kind of prospect that GMs have nightmares about trading. Feliz’ fastball consistently sits at 94-96, and his slider and change look like above-average pitches. Feliz owned the Mid-West league with 106 Ks and 28 BB in 82 IP, leading to a surprising double-promotion straight to AA. Feliz has more than held his own as a 20-year-old in the hitter-friendly Texas League, striking out 35 in 30.1 IP. The biggest concern is his workload. Feliz has already thrown 70 more innings than he did last year, way over the 30 IP threshold that you hope never to pass. His innings have been limited, held under 4 IP in his last 4 outings, but you have to wonder if it’s about time to just shut him down completely.
Projection: Feliz is one of the few pitching prospects who you can say has true ace potential.
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Tampa Bay Rays Top 5 Prospects
Certainly no problem finding a top 5 in this organization - top 15, anyone? The system isn’t the same shining star it was at the beginning of the season thanks to graduations and some disappointing seasons, but it’s still about as good as you can get. Another good-looking draft should keep the Rays near the top of organization rankings for even longer still.
1. LHSP David Price
Who?: David Price is the best pitching prospect in baseball. He possesses a plus FB/slider combination, and he’s backed up his stuff by a dominating performance in his first season in pro-ball. You’ve heard the same rumblings I have about bringing Price up in a Joba role in September. That may be a good idea, but you have to bring in the question of whether the extra workload is good for him. One of the very few question marks about Price coming out of college was that he may have been overworked; certainly, 133 IP in one season is a lot more than you’d expect. Also, the starter to reliever and back again conversion might not be the best thing for a pitcher’s arm.
Projection: Likely an ace reliever today, ace starter tomorrow.
2. CF Desmond Jennings
Who?: Jennings is an ultra-toolsy CF who came into the season with one real question mark: whether he could start to hit for legitimate power. That question has gone unanswered, but this season has brought up another one: can he stay healthy? Assorted back and shoulder injuries have ended Jennings’ season have just 24 games. Jennings is young and talented enough that a lost year isn’t the end of the world, but it’s certainly not what he was looking for.
Who?: At worst, Jennings looks like a speedy plus-defender with an above-average bat. If he can stay healthy and his power develops, he’ll be among the most dynamic CFs in the game.
Seattle Mariners Top 5 Prospects
This is one of the Top 5’s that I’ve really been dreading, because there’s just not much there. (Don’t ask me about the Cubs. Ugh.). Having Bavasi and Gillick as your only GMs of the decade will cause some serious long-term harm to your farm system.
1. 2B/SS Carlos Triunfel
Who?: Triunfel is the one really shining star of the Mariners’ farm system. I assume that I covered Triunfel in-depth enough here, and that there’s not much left to say. Extremely advanced for his age and an extremely high ceiling are an excellent combination.
Projection: Triunfel will likely be among the best hitters at whichever position he plays, whether it’s 2B or 3B. He figures to play all of next year in AA, and then start to make some major league noise in 2010 - when he turns twenty.
2. RHSP Phillippe Aumont
Who?: The Mariners’ 2007 first round pick. Aumont is a big, Canadian power pitcher. Everybody knew he had excellent stuff with a mid-90s FB and a hard breaking slider, but nobody thought he was as polished as he is. The Mariners have taken it easy on Aumont as far as pitch count goes, and he missed two months with an elbow injury, but in his limited time he struck out 44 with only 15 BB in 47.2 IP. These aren’t the dominating numbers you’ve seen with guys like Feliz and Bumgarner, but it’s ahead of what people expected this early.
Projection: Aumont has front-of-the-rotation potential, but he’s way too far away right now to start talking like that.
Madison Bumgarner is Fantastic; Adam Dunn
I’m not going to go into any scouting reports or stuff, that’ll be for the Giants Top 5 prospects - assuming Bumgarner makes it, of course.
I have a hunch he might.
I just can’t remember any pitcher so consistently dominating for this kind of stretch at any level. In his last ten starts:
- 67 IP, 69 K, 8 BB
- He has never pitched less than 5 IP
- He has pitched at least 7 innings 8 times
- He has never allowed more than 3 ER, which he’s done twice, in 7 IP games
- He has allowed more H than IP once; 9 H in 7 IP
- He has never walked more than 3 batters in a game
- In his last 3 games, he has 23 K and ZERO BB in 22 IP
- In his last 5 games, he has 40 K and 2 BB in 36 IP
What a pitcher this guy is.
In other news, it appears that Adam Dunn has been traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks. This instantly becomes a great trade for the D-Backs, who had a serious hole in RF. Dunn will be a terrible defender, but believe it or not, the 28-year-old who has put up a .900 OPS in 4 of the last 5 years IS a great hitter. Shocking, isn’t it?
The deal is for prospect Dallas Buck and two PTBNL. Whoever it is, it’s safe to assume that if Dallas Buck is the centerpiece of this deal, the Reds didn’t get a whole lot.
Oakland Athletics Top 5 Prospects
The rejuvenation of the A’s farm system is usually attributed to the A’s recent re-building efforts. That’s certainly a large part of it, as 5 of the Athletics on the Mid-Season Top 100 have been acquired via trade in the last year. However, due to the large contingent of A’s on the list, that means that there are still six A’s on the list which were acquired via draft or international signing. The A’s are proving that they are still one of the best drafting organizations in the majors.
1. RHSP Trevor Cahill
Who?: Cahill exceeded expectations with an impressive full-season debut last year. It was beyond hope that he could exceed expectations again this year, but that’s exactly what he did. As a 20-year-old in a hitter’s park in the California League, Cahill put up what was, at the time, likely the best season of any pitcher in the minors. Cahill struck out 103 of 344 batters, with 31 BB and a 61.4 GB%. After a promotion to the Texas League, Cahill has finally shown he’s human, as he’s been far from dominant. Cahill throws a 91-94 sinking fastball, with a real plus-plus slow curve and a decent change. Cahill also scores huge points for his intelligence, as he had committed to Dartmouth before signing with the A’s out of high school.
Projection: Cahill could certainly be a pitcher near the front of a team’s rotation. He’s currently in Beijing representing the United States as part of a baseball squad pretty stacked with prospects, including…
2. LHSP Brett Anderson
Who?: Anderson lacks an overpowering fastball, but that’s just about all he lacks. Anderson possesses a plus curve, a plus change, he has excellent command of all three pitches, and everything is down in the zone. Combined between High-A and AA, Anderson has a very good 26.7 K%, 6.4 BB% and 58.0 GB%.
Projection: You could pretty much flip a coin to decide who’s better between Cahill and Anderson. They’re both extremely young, extremely talented, and extremely polished. They’ll also both be pitching at the front of the A’s rotation in short order. Read more
New York Yankees Top 5 Prospects
The Yankees used to be one of the worst systems in baseball. Then, a combination of good drafting and - *gasp* - keeping the players they drafted re-located them to the top ten organizations in baseball. Now, due to the graduations of Hughes/Joba/Kennedy, along with Tabata being all Tabata-y and a Pirate and all, the Yankee system seems to be heading back towards a bit of a dry spell.
1. CF Austin Jackson
Who?: Jackson is a very toolsy outfielder who had a huge breakout in High-A last year, hitting .345/.398/.566 in 284 PA. His .294/.367/.442 line this year may look like a bit of a disappointment in comparison, but for the most part the only diffence is that he’s less lucky this year. He’s walking more, but he also only has 9 HR all year. Jackson is a great defender, with good contact skills and a good plate approach. The only question remaining is whether he can develop 20-25 HR power.
Projection: If he develops power, he’ll be among the best CF out there. If he doesn’t, he’ll still be a pretty damn good one.
2. C Jesus Montero
Who?: That ‘C’ beside his name is for decoration as much as anything, because Montero is certainly not going to be a catcher. He is, however, going to be a very fine hitter. Montero already had a very advanced batting eye for his age, but he had never showed his tremendous raw power in game situations. Perhaps that’s starting to change:
308 AB in April/May/June: 7 HR
121 AB in July/August: 6 HR
Whether his power will come now or later, Montero is surely one of the best young hitting prospects in the minors.
Projection: Montero’s bat has the potential to be the best of anybody on the Top 100. With his level of refinement, he might even see the majors at some point in 2010, but 2011 is more realistic.
Minnesota Twins Top 5 Prospects
The Twins have always been among the best teams in baseball when it comes to scouting and development. Occasionally, they’ve succumbed to Dodger-itis, in that they often don’t know what to do with the talent they have. (Letting Ortiz walk for nothing, putting terrible veterans in the rotation above good youngsters), and the farm system has been rather dry for a couple of years. Still, this list isn’t based on the probability that they will be used right, and good picks at the top of the draft in the last couple of years seem to be getting the Twins’ system back on track.
1. CF Ben Revere
Who?: Revere was a surprising and much-maligned pick last year, with many saying he was only drafted because he would be cheap to sign. He’s certainly made those people look pretty dumb. Revere is one guy who you know the Twins won’t be hesitant to give any playing time to when he gets to the majors. Revere was made for the Twins. He’s a lightning-fast centerfielder who plays top-notch defense, makes contact at an excellent rate (8.8 K% for his career so far), and has surprising gap power. (43 XBH in 121 games, only 1 a HR).
Projection: Revere is 20 and in Low-A, so barring a fast-track to the majors, certainly not out of the question with his level of refinement, Revere is likely about 2-3 years away. When he gets here, he’s likely to be a Jacoby Ellsbury type… a productive Ellsbury, anyway.
2. RHSP Shooter Hunt
Who?: Hunt was the first pick in the 1st compensation round, 31st overall, and the 13th overall player on my value board. I believe that this is the first instance of a difference between the Top 5 lists and the mid-season list, brought on by Hunt’s hot streak and Robertson’s issues - see #3. Hunt throws a plus FB/curve combo and mixes in a change, with his only problem being that he’s wild at times, with 56 walks in 100.2 innings in his last year of college. For whatever reason, the Twins decided to start Hunt in the rookie league, where he struck out 34 batters in his first 19 innings, and earned himself a jump to Low-A. He’s had two five-inning starts, striking out 9 in each, with 2 walks in one and 5 in the other. He’s given up 9 hits and zero home runs all year. Hunt is a college pitcher at low levels, so you can’t get TOO excited, but he’s been very impressive.
Projection: Hunt definitely has the stuff to project as a #2-type pitcher. He’ll probably spend next year at High-A, the following year at AA, and be ready for a major league shot in September 2010 or early 2011.
Read more
Los Angeles Angels Top 5 Prospects
The Angels have historically been near the top of organization rankings, but they’ve been on a bit of a downswing lately. Some top prospects have been disappointing (Wood, Adenhart), and they’ve gone two years without having a first round pick. Those kinds of things add up, and the Angels might even rank in the bottom half of all farm systems. (Before you ask, Brandon Wood is no longer eligible).
1. 2B Sean Rodriguez
Who?: Rodriguez was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2003 draft, and since then he’s been on pretty much every Angels top prospect list. As a middle-infielder who showed some real plus-hitting ability, along with the occasional .900 or 1.000 OPS, his rankings were well-deserved. However, he had occasionally been plagued by strikeout concerns, and that seemed to come to a head last year. Rodriguez struck out 132 times in 587 AA PA, and his walk and power numbers were down as well. His prospect status took a serious hit. However, the Angels kept their faith in him, and he started 2008 in AAA. Rodriguez has taken that opportunity and proves he belongs near the top of any prospect ranking. Rodriguez has hit .310/.403/.668 - yes, .668 - with 44 K, 27 BB and 40 XBH (21 HR) in 270 PA.
Projection: Rodriguez is a 2B with a serious, serious bat, so his value is readily apparent. Unfortunately, he’s blocked by Howie Kendrick, and the Angels hate to trade prospects. After the year, if the Angels don’t re-sign Teixeira, Rodriguez or Kendrick may move to 1B, but the job could also go to Kendry Morales. Rodriguez could move back to SS, but his glove really doesn’t belong there, Aybar is doing a fine job, and the Angels have a weird Maicer Izturis fetish.. I sure hope that this talent doesn’t go to waste.
2. C Hank Conger
Who?: Conger missed over two months with a shoulder injury, but since returning he hasn’t skipped a beat. Conger is an all-bat catcher, but if he can improve defensively enough just to remain at the position, the bat will definitely carry him. Conger is a switch-hitter whose best tool is his power, and although his strikeout rate is worrisome this year, he has definitely shown the ability to hit for contact in the past. He won’t walk very much, but at the catcher position you can’t be too picky. (Unless you’re the Rangers).
Projection: An above-average offense-oriented catcher. He’s at least two years away, though.
Read more
Kansas City Royals Top 5 Prospects
The Royals have had, to a lesser degree, the same ‘advantage’ that the Rays have had in terms of building a farm system: They’re perennially among the first few picks in the draft. Unlike the Rays, most of the Royals’ recent high draft picks are in the majors and producing - to varying degrees. This includes players like Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, Zach Greinke and Luke Hochevar. These graduations have caused the Royals’ farm system to become rather thin, although it’s still quite strong at the top.
1. 3B Mike Moustakas
Who?: The 2nd overall pick last year, Moustakas got off to a god-awful start this year, with a .479 OPS this year. Then, the 19-year-old began to display the contact and power skills that led to him being the first hitter chosen in 2007. Since May 1st, Moustakas has only been hitting .272 with a .482 SLG, with 57 K, 33 XBH and 14 HR in 301 AB in that time-frame. He’s even turned into a pretty good defender at 3B.
Projection: Moustakas is is obviously still far from being a major leaguer, but he’s started off on the right track. He could definitely be an Aramis Ramirez type offensively.
2. 1B Eric Hosmer
Who?: For the second year in a row, the Royals took the top high school hitter in the country, with Hosmer taking the 6th spot on my pre-draft value board. Hosmer has a very refined plate approach with excellent discipline and plus power to go with plus defense. He seems unlikely to see any time in pro-ball this year except perhaps the winter leagues, but he’ll be a masher when he gets here.
Projection: Hosmer should have everything offensively that you’d expect from a top 1B prospect, and due to his refinement I expect him to reach the majors faster than most high school picks.
Phew - the deadline wasn’t a complete dud
Let’s take a look at this monster deal. It looks like:
To the Red Sox; Jason Bay
To the Dodgers: Manny Ramirez, a lot of $
To the Pirates: 3B Andy LaRoche, RHRP Craig Hansen, OF Brandon Moss, RHSP Bryan Morris
So let’s look at this by team.
The Red Sox got rid of a giant headache in Manny Ramirez, which is worth quite a bit in itself. Ramirez is a slightly better hitter than Bay, but the difference isn’t huge. Bay is light years ahead of Manny defensively, plus he’s under control for next year at a bargain. ($7.5m). It seems that the goal of this trade for the Sox was to try to keep the status quo production-wise, while getting a much better fit for the team, and they’ve done that.
This is a great trade for the Dodgers. They traded only prospects, one of whom they had no interest in giving a shot to. (Laroche). You have to assume Manny will be taking over LF everyday to go with Kemp, Ethier and Jones in the OF, while Pierre never gets another PA. (One must hope). Then again, in this organization you could see Ethier and Kemp sent to High-A for the next two years or so. If the Dodgers manage this right, they have an absolutely huge improvement for the stretch run.
Finally, I think the Pirates also got what they wanted out of this trade. They shed plenty of salary and received some nice prospects. As we saw with the Nady/Marte trade, Huntington is looking more for quantity than quality at this point, since the Pirates system is quite barren. Brandon Moss should be just about an average corner outfielder, and a Moss-McCutchen-McLouth outfield for the foreseeable future isn’t bad. Not outstanding, but not bad. Craig Hansen’s had his troubles lately, with pretty bad showings in AAA last year and the majors this year. Still, he used to be a really dominating relief prospect, and a good AAA showing this year gives hope that he can be a decent bullpen arm in Pittsburgh for a while.
Bryan Morris was the Dodger’s first round pick in 2008. (Along with Clayton Kershaw). He missed 2007 due to TJS, and hasn’t been all that impressive since coming back. He’s got a good fastball and curve, and will be a reclamation for the Pirates.
Andy LaRoche! Andy freaking LaRoche. That part of the deal is what makes me so happy. I absolutely love him as a prospect, and have constantly been frustrated with the Dodger’s complete inability to realize what they have with him. The Pirates, except for Pedro Alvarez, don’t have anything noteworthy in terms of IF prospects. Now you’ll likely see LaRoche at 3B with Alvarez at 1B for a long time. The Pirates have really been excellent in terms of filling long-term holes all over the team.
It’s a three-team deal, and I really like this deal from everybody’s perspective. How often can you say that?
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