Comparing Fernando Martinez and Carlos Triunfel
In response to, erm, questions about Martinez’s absence from the Top 100, I’m going to do a little analysis of these two prospects. I hope this can do two things:
1. Shed a little light on how I evaluate prospects.
2. Give some pub for Carlos Triunfel, who is, in my opinion, the most interesting prospect in baseball.
People speak of statistics-oriented analysis as if it’s just BA/OBP/SLG, when those are not very good indicators at all; way too much luck involved in those. I mean, BA isn’t even meaningful for major leaguers, and the only utility it has for prospects is to put OBP and SLG into context (ie. a .280/.380/.500 hitter is far different from a .320/.380/.500 hitter).
Even OBP and SLG lose a lot of meaning. For one, they’re often very BA driven, so if a player is getting very lucky (think Mat Gamel or Max Ramirez) or unlucky (think Matt Antonelli), they can be quite misleading. Also, minor league baseball has more extremes than the majors. There’s a bigger difference in hitter’s and pitcher’s parks in the minors than in the majors (look at Lancaster, for instance). You even have entire leagues which are hitting and pitcher oriented. Plus, you have to take into account the level of talent you’re playing against far more than in the majors. Let’s look at a practical example in Martinez and Triunfel.
Detroit Tigers Top 5 Prospects
We went from a quite bad farm system in the White Sox, to a quite good one in the Indians, now unfortunately we’re back to a quite bad one. The Tigers’ only representative in the Top 100 was Rick Porcello. Beyond him, there’s not a whole lot. The farm system was already pretty mediocre before the Maybin trade. After that, it’s very thin indeed.
1. RHSP Rick Porcello
Who?: Reputedly the best high-school pitching prospect in years, apparently. While every list in the world was ranking Porcello in the Top 15 before the season, I ranked him at #31. That might look low, but if you knew how I felt about high school pitching prospects who hadn’t pitched a single minor league inning, you’d know that that was quite high indeed. His drop to #48 isn’t so much of a representation of Porcello, as I rank him close to the same, but there was quite a bit of an influx of talent in front of him.
Porcello throws a nasty mid-high 90s fastball with two breaking balls, reminiscent of Homer Bailey’s plus-plus FB and plus-plus curve combination. However, as Bailey’s shown, stuff isn’t everything. Porcello has held his own in High-A, especially considering his age, but he’s been far from dominating. He’s an excellent pitching prospect, but hold the parade for now; he has a long way to go.
Projection: His ceiling is obviously as an absolute ace. Due to signing a major league contract, the Tigers will unfortunately feel pressured to promote Porcello quickly. Unless he goes out and dominates the rest of the year, he’ll likely start 2009 in High-A again, moving to AA soon enough. I assume he won’t be starting Opening Day 2010, but he seems likely to see plenty of major league time that year.
2. RHRP Ryan Perry
Who?: The Tigers’ first pick this year. He’s not much different from your usual college reliever, showing two good pitches. He throws a fastball that can, and has reached 100 MPH with a plus slider. With that repertoire he should have absolutely dominated college, and he did quite well, but he wasn’t untouchable. The culprit is that his fastball doesn’t have quite the movement you’d hope for, and major leaguers can hit even a 100 MPH FB if it’s straight.
Projection: The FB movement is probably nothing more than a nitpick, and he’s likely to be just what he’s projected to be; a very good late-innings reliever, and he’s likely to do it soon. He should be up sometime next year.
Teixeira Traded to the Angels…
… for Casey Kotchman and Stephen Marek.
Eh.
This is a great trade for the Angels, obviously. Teixeira is a substantial upgrade over Kotchman for the balance of the season, and Marek isn’t exactly a huge part of their future. If they re-sign Tex, great, if not, they’ll have two picks to console themselves with. However, that would leave a rather large hole at 1B in the short-term after this year, with the likely options being Kendry Morales or moving Brandon Wood or Sean Rodriguez to 1B. None of those are ideal solutions.
The Braves didn’t get ripped off or anything, but I’m not thrilled with what they got in return. Marek was a disaster as a starter, leading to his move to the bullpen for this year. He’s actually been rather impressive as a reliever in the Texas League, so perhaps he has a future in middle relief. However, before the season Kevin Goldstein suggested that Marek doesn’t get any good movement on his pitches, so unless that’s improved, Marek doesn’t have much value at all.
Kotchman isn’t a bad player. He’s always shown excellent contact ability, and he usually had a very patient approach, but he’s never shown more than gap power. The power hasn’t seen any change, but that patient approach certainly has. After walking in 10.4% of his PA and taking 3.73 P/PA last year, those numbers have plummeted to only 4.5% and 3.35 P/PA. That’s a serious, serious drop. If he’s not going to hit for power, he at least needs to be able to put up a good OBP.
Perhaps this is just a result of the Angels’ management and their aggressive approach, and a new team could make adjustments. If Kotchman could go back to hitting like he did last year, and move away from the tough AL and a pitcher’s park, he can be a very productive player. However, in his current state, he’s not at all what you want from a 1B, and certainly not worth trading Tex for.
Cleveland Indians Top 5 Prospects
I’ve always mentally placed the Indians as one of the best-run organizations in baseball. Obviously this season isn’t going quite to plan (or my prediction, for that matter), but I would never lose hope for the future when you have leadership like the Indians do. Even better, when you have a well-run organization these top 5 lists are much easier; all top 5 are in my Top 100.
1. LF Matt LaPorta
Who?: An already good farm system was made even better after the Sabathia trade which brought LaPorta to Cleveland. I’m not sure what I can say here than I haven’t expanded on before. LaPorta’s got monster power and an excellent plate approach gives LaPorta the best bat of any prospect in baseball. An ugly start since the trade looks bad, but that’s ok. I’m sure you could find any great hitter - including LaPorta, this season, who had much uglier 14 game stretches.
Projection: LaPorta is pretty close to being a major-league ready hitter right now. There’s plenty of room for LaPorta in either LF or RF, or even 1B if the Tribe loses faith in Garko. (I wouldn’t). I’d like to see LaPorta start Opening Day 2009 for the Twins, where he’d immediately move to the head of the pack of ROY candidates.
2. 1B Beau Mills
Who?: LaPorta and Mills just might be the best 1-2 punch in terms of hitting prospects in baseball. After getting off to a slow start power-wise (combined 5 HR in April/May), Mills has shown his true colours as a masher. In June and July, Mills has put up 11 HR, with 22 of his 57 hits going for extra bases, totalling a .537 SLG. To go along iwth his very legitimate power is a good plate approach as well. He’s not much defensively, but quite frankly at this point I couldn’t care less.
Projection: Another reason why I wouldn’t give up on Garko just yet, besides Garko’s talent itself, is that even if he turns out to be a complete bust, Beau Mills will come in as the saviour in 2010 or so. Mills isn’t LaPorta, but he’ll be an excellent hitter nonetheless.
Casey Blake traded to the Dodgers
Casey Blake has been traded to the Dodgers for prospects RHP Jon Meloan and C Carlos Santana. The Indians are sending cash to the Dodgers to help pay off the rest of Blake’s contract this year.
Blake is essentially what Xavier Nady is, except five years older. He can be counted on to produce position-average offense at the corner positions, for now at least. It’s not like the Dodgers made this deal counting on Blake for next year, anyway. It appears that Blake is here to take plate appearances away from Blake DeWitt and NOT Andre Ethier, which is a very good thing. Of course, that means even less chance for Andy LaRoche to get any meaningful major league playing time, but at least this isn’t a total disaster. Things are looking up for the Dodgers!
Meloan has put up eye-popping numbers as a reliever in 2006 and 2007, eye-popping enough that he was close to being only the 3rd reliever on the pre-season Top 100. In those two years he put up a combined 182 K and 43 BB in 118.2 IP. Considering he was remarkably successful as a mostly two-pitch sinker/slider pitcher (he mixes in a curveball as well), the Dodgers decided it was necessary to screw with his mind and move him to the rotation. It’s a defensible decision, as a pitcher is more valuable to a team as a starter than a reliever, especially to a team like the Dodgers who already had Saito, Broxton and Kuo in the late-innings. Still, stud relievers are getting big contracts for a reason; they’re valuable!
This year as a starter, Meloan has seriously regressed. Go figure. It remains to be seen if the Indians will use him as a starter or a reliever, but I seriously hope that it’s the latter.
I recently got asked why Carlos Santana wasn’t on the Top 100 list; he certainly could have been. He’d easily be in the top 150. He’s hitting .323/.431/.563, which as you might guess is helped by BABIP, but it’s not like it’s a fluke either. He’s shown very legitimate hitting tools in the past which appear to have translated into production this year. He has a very good arm behind the plate and a lot of athleticism, but he’s raw and needs some work if he wants to stay there. So why wasn’t he on the Top 100?
Well first, I’m always wary of anybody who has a breakout season in the California League. Second, despite his gaudy numbers this year, I don’t think he has a tremendously high ceiling, especially at catcher. Third, there’s certainly no guarantee that he’ll remain at catcher, and if he has to move to 1B or 3B his value is obviously crippled. Still, he’s a very valuable guy, and a good one for the Indians to get.
Overall, I think this trade is pretty fair, and makes sense for both teams.
Nady and Marte traded to the Yankees
According to a lot of sources (BP, Heyman, Rosenthal), The Pirates have traded Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte to the Yanks for Jose Tabata, Ross Ohlendorf, George Kontos and Phil Coke.
This is not a good trade for the Pirates, and I’m extremely disappointed. Ever since Neal Huntington took over for the Pirates, I’ve been very optimistic about the direction the team was going. He seemed very logical, and had a well thought out long-term plan. This trade is a definite step forward.
Nady is not a great player. He’s a good one, and has value, but this season is remarkably fluky; a .367 BABIP is not even close to sustainable. That being said, it’s likely that his season has inflated his season and somebody might overpay.
Marte is an excellent reliever who can be expected to put up an ERA in the mid-3s, and combined with Rivera and Edwar Ramirez should make a very formidable late-game trio. Marte is the real gem of this deal.
In return for these two valuable players, the Pirates got… not a whole lot. Jose Tabata is supposedly the centerpiece, but this deal signifies that the Yankees have given up on his ceiling, and for good reason. Four years into his professional career, his only real offensive tool is an ability to make contact. He has only an average walk rate, and in 1180 career ABs he has only 16 HR, with no sign of improvement. He’s never even put up an .800 OPS. He’s athletic and does make good contact, so he could be a major league 4th OF or even a mediocre starter, but the dreams of him being a five-tool superstud are long gone.
Chicago White Sox Top 5 Prospects
The first two rankings were quite easy to do, as both teams have pretty good farm systems. That’s not the case with the White Sox. The system wasn’t good to start with, but after emptying it out in trades, it’s in pretty much shambles. Drafting Gordon Beckham is a good start, but there is A LOT of work to do. A lot.
1. SS Gordon Beckham
Who?: Calling Beckham a shortstop is rather generous, as he’s likely a major league 3B, or perhaps a 2B. His defense isn’t the interesting part here. In Beckham’s last college season, he hit .403/.512/.798 with 45 XBH, 24 HR, 47 BB and 29 K. Hell, he was even 17/18 in SB. All that helped lead to me ranking Beckham is the 4th best player in this year’s draft, and the 22nd best prospect overall.
Projection: Assuming he doesn’t bust, Beckham shouldn’t take very long to make the majors. He might not even see any action this minor league regular season, but he’ll probably be at High-A next year, and in the majors within two years of today. Within a couple of years of his debut, he’ll be among the best hitters at whatever position he plays.
2. RHSP Aaron Poreda
Who?: Poreda was the White Sox’ 1st round pick last year. He showed a surprising amount of strikeout ability in his professional debut, but this year brought him back to his college pitch-to-contact days. After striking out 27.9% of batters last year, Poreda has only struck out 15.1% of batters in High-A and 19.0% in AA. However, he’s continued to show excellent control (Combined 6.8 BB%) and he gets a lot of ground balls (combined 51.0 GB%),
Projection: Poreda’s BB and GB rates suggest that Poreda can be either a decent starter or perhaps a very good reliever as early as next year. Think Brett Cecil-lite. His ceiling goes where his strikeout rate goes; I wouldn’t expect a drastic improvement.
Boston Red Sox Top 5 Prospects
Before the season, I said the Red Sox had the 3rd best farm system in baseball, behind the Rays and A’s. The graduations of Clay Buchholz, Jacoby Ellsbury and Justin Masterson have probably dropped them a little, but with six players in the Top 100 this system is still very, very good.
1. 1B Lars Anderson
Who?: Anderson’s .317/.408/.513 line as a 20-year-old in High-A should be very impressive, but because he was hitting in Lancaster, it’s not spectacular. There’s more than enough to like about Anderson as a hitter, but he’s still mostly potential rather than reality, especially in the power department. He has recently been promoted to AA Portland, which is a more neutral, even pitching-oriented park. Anderson’s plate approach is excellent, and nobody expects his defense to be good, he just needs to add power.
Projection: If Anderson impresses down the stretch run as a 20-year-old in AA, it would go a long way in cementing Anderson as one of baseball’s hitting prospects. Even if he doesn’t, it won’t hurt him much, if at all; the dude’s 20. With the Lowell-Youk-Ortiz trio assuring that Boston’s 1B/DH spot will be filled, the Sox won’t rush to bring Anderson up before, say, Opening Day 2010. When he gets here, he’s likely to be a really excellent hitter.
2. RHSP Michael Bowden
Who?: Bowden didn’t really come out of nowhere, as he was a respectable prospect before the season started, but he definitely broke out in a big way. Bowden showcases mainly a low-90’s fastball and a plus curve, but his calling card is his command. Bowden struggled in his AA promotion last year, but in High-A he struck out 26.1% of batters while walking a miniscule 4.5%; this year in AA he struck out 25.0% of batters while walking 6.0%.
Projection: Bowden was promoted to AAA this week. Bowden will likely be a major league starter the first time there’s an open rotation spot in 2009, or perhaps even sometime this year, especially if Buchholz’s struggles continue. He’ll be somewhere in the #2-3 starter range.
Baltimore Orioles Top 5 Prospects
Everybody likes lists, right? So for the next… well… 17 years in all likelihood, I’ll be going over every team’s top 5 prospects, alphabetically and starting with the AL. Shall we?
1. C Matt Wieters
Who?: I suppose it’s fitting that we start this off with the #1 prospect, period. You’d think that I’ve verbally gushed over Wieters enough over the last little while… guess not. Wieters is just the absolute epitome of a prospect. Hit for average? Yep. Walk? Uh-huh. Power? Definitely. Defense? Sure. Premium position? Check. Healthy? Affirmative. Find me something wrong with him. I dare you.
Projection: Considering that the O’s current starting catcher has a .684 OPS and Wieters is tearing it up in AA, the most likely scenario is that Wieters will be the opening day starter in 2009. If not, it’s hard to imagine that he won’t have that spot by mid-season. Whenever he gets here, he’ll be an instant impact player.
2. RHSP Chris Tillman
Who?: One of the prospects received in the Bedard deal, Tillman highlights an excellent trio of pitching prospects for the O’s that rivals any combination of young pitchers out there - Joba/Hughes/Kennedy, Cahill/Anderson/Inoa/Simmons, Price/McGee/Davis/Hellickson, etc. Tillman is only 20 and putting up a promising showing in AA, with only his inconsistent command holding him back. Tillman shows an excellent hard fastball and a real plus-curve, with a kind of meh change-up so far.
Projection: Tillman could actually be in contention for a roster spot on Opening Day, but I sure hope he isn’t. Tillman is very young and still very raw, so he could certainly use up to another full year in the minors. It’s not like the Orioles are going anywhere next year anyway, except for perhaps another mystical charge for .500. There’s still quite a bit of bust factor in Tillman, due to his control issues, but at the very least he should be a major league starter. At the most, Tillman could be as good as anybody.
2008 Mid-Season Top 100 Prospects
A lot can happen in half a season, even when it comes to long-term assets such as prospects. Besides the entry of the 2008 draftees, three months can greatly affect ‘veteran’ prospect rankings. They will not necessarily make or break a career, but all of the prospects had questions attached to their rankings, and many of them have been answered whether in the positive or the negative.
Some prospects’ rankings might not quite jive with where I indicated they would end up. This happens for one of three reasons. First of all, I could simply have changed my mind about a player, or perhaps I was made aware of some information that I did not have before. Second, something may have changed between a prospect’s review and today. For example, Desmond Jennings going down with his third injury of the year is extremely frustrating. On the positive side, Chris Carter of the A’s has continued an absolutely ridiculous hitting tear since he was covered with the first batch of prospects.
Third, the make-up of the list may have an effect. For instance, I believe that this top ten is not as impressive as that of the pre-season list, but I think that the 10-30 range is far stronger. The reason for the latter is the difference in draft quality. Only 3 of the top 25 pre-season prospects were from the 2007 draft; 6 of the top 25 of this list were drafted this year, and Michael Inoa is essentially the seventh member of that group. This should help explain why prospects like Travis Snider and Desmond Jennings are ranked where they are; they would certainly be ranked higher on the pre-season list.
Before the season, the Rays had far and away the best farm system of any team in baseball. Now, one team has made that close: The Oakland Athletics. The two systems have gone in completely different directions in a rather short time. The Rays’ top prospect (Longoria) graduated and others like McGee, Davis and Brignac have disappointed somewhat. The A’s have received outstanding performances from highly-ranked prospects Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, while unranked Sean Doolittle has burst onto the scene, and they signed ubermensch prospect Michael Inoa. The gap before the season was so large that the Rays might still have the best farm system in baseball, but I would have no problem giving that title to the A’s.
The best prospects today reside at opposite points of the defensive spectrum, and 1B and C prospects clutter the list. The explosion of 1B prospects is easily explained by the fact that that position housed most of the best prospects in this past draft. The influx of catchers has no other explanation other than the fact that a lot of them are having breakout years. Of course, many C prospects are just 1B prospects in disguise.
Unlike Baseball America’s updated 100 prospects, which does not include anybody signed this year or anybody currently in the majors, the only requirement for eligibity on this list is to be rookie-eligible.
Onto the players. Wieters possesses such an awesome combination of offense and defense at a premium position that I never seriously considered ranking anybody else as #1. Matt LaPorta is simply the best hitter in the minors, while David Price is the best pitcher, although Max Scherzer’s mind-boggling season has made it close.
Enjoy.
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