Could the Angels lose this division?
It’s assumed that the Angels will win the AL West, considering that none of their competition looks particularly strong - except for those of you who believe in the Mariners. I don’t, but whatever floats your boat. The point is, the Angels are considered the favourite.
I predicted them to win the division as well. However, the problem I have is that whenever I look at this team, I just don’t see that much talent, and much of that is on the DL.
Kelvim Escobar, the Angels’ #2 starter, is very likely done for the year, and perhaps his career. Lackey, the ace, isn’t expected back for another three weeks or so - perhaps 4-5 starts. What is there beyond them?
The rest of the rotation is good, but no more than that. Without the top two, it turns pretty ugly. Jered Weaver is a very good young pitcher, but a GB rate of roughly 35% forces him to rely on a lot of fly balls staying in the park. In a strange turn that is possibly a fluke, Angel Stadium went from being one of the best pitcher’s parks to the 8th best hitter’s park in 2007, and for what it’s worth the 5th best hitter’s park so far in 2008. Either way, Weaver’s success will fluctuate with his home run rate, and fluctuation is NOT what you’re looking for from your team’s #1 or #2 starter.
Garland is another solid pitcher, with FIPs staying consistently between 4.22 and 4.46 in the last three years. Perfect for the #4 starter as he was slotted to be, but not as a division favourite’s #2 starter.
Joe Saunder’s falls into the ‘not that great’ category, with a career line of 15.0 K%/8.2 B%/2.3 HR% in the major leagues after struggles with control and gopheritis in the minor leagues.
Ervin Santana’s brutal 2007 is well known, and his good but not great minor league record suggests he certainly has something to prove this year at the ripe old age of 25. Dustin Moseley is Ervin Santana without a good minor league record.
With Lackey and Escobar in the picture, this looked like a very deep rotation. Now, and even when Lackey returns, it seems very shallow indeed.
The bullpen is solid as always, although perhaps a little too dependent on the top three of Shields, Speier and K-Rod.
The offense is where things start to get real sticky. For reference, the park-adjusted league averages for position can be found here. The question is: Who can you call even an above-average player?
Of the starting nine, PECOTA projects that only Vladdy, Casey Kotchman, Gary Matthews Jr. and Torii Hunter will hit for an above-average OPS… above an average 2B, that is. Of these four, only Guerrero and Hunter are projected to hit above their respected position averages.
What does this all mean? Likely, not much. The Mariners still have a terrible team apart from the front of their rotation and bullpen. The Rangers can’t pitch, and the A’s can’t hit. However, this does mean that the divide is much smaller than many believe, and it won’t take an exorbitant amount of luck to see the Angels miss the playoffs.
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