In short: Pythagoras had this team at 87 wins last year, even with the terrible offense. The pitching this year might regress, but even a small increase in production (which one would expect, Scutaro’s better than the scrubs that were being used, Barajas is better than Phillips, Stewart is better than Johnson and I’m sure we’ll see Lind in 2008 out performing the Lind of 2007 — even without bounce-back years from Overbay, Wells, this offense will be better).

Lastly I think you’re wrong about who the Sox will use as replacement players… I don’t particularly understand the bias against using young players but it is there. Cora/Casey will get the first chance to fail… and they’ll be given significant ABs before the younger options are turned to.

This is a team that should do .500 easily… I’m not so wild about them as some, but to project anything less thing 84 wins seems foolhardy (we can have a nice discussion why PECOTA is so wrong on the Jays - it starts with variance, it is projecting seasons for three players on offense like they’ve never had… Wells/Rolen/Overbay have better chances of hitting their 90 or 10 percentile seasons than their 50 percentile seasons… this year’s Jays are a study in the ways PECOTA fails).

Anyway, nice read… and I guess we’ll see, I just think you’re off-base on the depth. It is better (on offense) or at least as good (pitching) than last season and look how much it hurt last year… and well, this team can’t be than unlucky with long-term injuries as in 2007, can it?

I wouldn’t say Lowrie has below average power. He doesn’t hit many home runs, but he hits enough XBH besides that he still slugged .500 last year. And a .298 BA/.393 OBP is better than a ‘fairly decent’ walk rate.

I shouldn’t need to say that 100 PA’s is NOT a sample size.

He’s not a good defensive shortstop, but he’s better than Scutaro.

I haven’t see Carter play, but Lowrie doesn’t impress me at all. He has below average power, average at best speed and a fairly decent walk rate for a shortstop. He makes a boatload of errors in Pawfucket as well.
I saw a few games with Lowrie in the AFL and he was god awful. He has very poor swing mechanics and lacks the strong arm needed for shortstop. I believe he hit about .150, almost all singles, in well over 100 PA’s.

I really don’t think they have much more depth in the high minors than the Jays do. An OF/1B and a couple young catchers is all either team really has.

Depth isn’t just the bench, it’s also major-league ready talent in the upper minors, and that’s why our depth is so weak. Apart from Lind, we really don’t have anything in the upper minors. That’s also one reason why I think we look better next year… Snider and Cecil will be ready to debut at some point, and although it’s unlikely you can hold out hope that Purcey or Romero develops into a solid starter.

Eck is signed to a one-year deal, we’d only have 3 SSs if we get Furcal.

Yeah, I like Lind, and he’ll be an improvement over the LF situation we have this year. I don’t think he’ll be a star, but there’s nothing wrong with a consistent .850-.875 OPS.

I like the idea of adding Furcal though. I noticed you didn’t mention Lind in your views of 2009. Whats your opinion about him?

Look at the red sox bench..Varitek has had his injury problems in the past, and they have Kevin Cash along with a couple of catching prospects no further along than Curtis Thigpen. I’ll certainly take Rod Barajas over Cash.

The infield is no better. Sean Casey had a .740 OPS last year and isn’t getting any younger. Nobody expects Stairs to repeat, but he beats that OPS with his eyes closed as he has his whole career. I don’t see Stairs getting much time at first anyways. Overbay hasn’t really had any injury problems other than the fluke variety.

Alex Cora’s .650 career OPS is not much better than John McDonald’s mark. Our bench doesn’t look so bad now does it?

Like you mentioned, the pitching depth is going to be the real problem. I agree with pretty much everything and the loss of Janssen could kill us. Brian Tallet didn’t really have a career year though. I expect him to stay around career averages. JP is going to have to build up some depth somehow.

The Furcal idea seemed nice back before we got Scutaro, but now I’m not sure it’s a good idea to have 4 shortstops on the team making multi-millions.

Good article overall, I just think you’re way off on the standings predictions.