2008 Top 100 Prospects
This list was compiled for two reasons.
First, I adore prospects. Much more so than 8-year major league veterans, evaluating prospects is fun. How can you compare looking up a player`s career on ESPN.com to looking at a 20-year old kid and imagining what he will become? In three months of work on this list, I knew that not only would I increase my knowledge of prospects many times over, but I’d also get a lot of enjoyment out of it.
The second reason is a little less endearing. Two years ago, in response to my criticisms of Baseball America, some intellectual lightweight proudly retorted “and where’s YOUR list?” and thought that that was a valid counterpoint. Well, now I can reply just as proudly: “Here it is, B$!*%”
Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus perfectly echoed my (and many other’s) sentiments on evaluating prospects in a recent Mailbag when he said you have to evaluate prospects as if they were in a vacuum. That is what I have tried to do with this list.
Each prospect is evaluated based solely on his own merit, and not on circumstances he has no control over. For example, Jay Bruce and Travis Snider do not benefit from having major league home parks that are gift-wrapped for their playing style, nor is a guy like Chase Headley given a demerit because he will have to hit in a pitcher-friendly park. Just the same, A’s prospects aren’t ranked higher due to having a clear and easy path to the majors, while Dodgers prospects aren’t ranked lower because they’ll be in the minors until they collect social security, and so on. I’ve also tried to shut out any influence that would lead me to rank a prospect higher or lower than I would like to, just because somebody else would do so. I may be using some of the same information as others, but the conclusions are my own.
There is a definite bias towards statistics in these rankings, but not completely. I would say there is a roughly 70%-30% split in favour of statistics, and even that estimate may be on the high side. Each prospect is evaluated with a combination of statistics - looking at process and not outcomes - scouting reports, and in the case of roughly 45-55 of these names, personal observation.
The position a player is listed at is not too significant, as in many cases that is not the position he will be playing in the majors, or even the position he’ll play this year. Players are ranked with their future position in mind, but they are listed at their present position.
There are no foreign players here. If you’re curious, Fukudome would be in the top ten, Alexei Ramirez would likely be somewhere in the 45-55 range and Hiroki Kuroda would be roughly 65-75.
The best prospect in baseball, in my opinion, is Clay Buchholz. I’d generally put a hitter over a pitcher, but that doesn’t apply this year. Buchholz is essentially a perfect prospect. Flashing two plus pitches with assorted accompanying pitches, Buchholz has dominated at every level he’s played at. I believe Joba Chamberlain will be more productive when he pitches, but due to concerns about Chamberlain’s conditioning, injury issues, and whether he has the temperament to be a starter, I believe Buchholz is the better bet to pitch 200 quality innings year in and year out.
As for organizational rankings, it is clear to me the top three should be ranked:
1. Tampa Bay Rays
2. Oakland Athletics
3. Boston Red Sox
Now, without further ado, the top 100 prospects in baseball today:
1. RHSP Clay Buchholz (Boston Red Sox)
2. RHSP Joba Chamberlain (New York Yankees)
3. 3B Evan Longoria (Tampa Bay Rays)
4. CF Colby Rasmus (St. Louis Cardinals)
5. LHSP David Price (Tampa Bay Rays)
6. OF Jay Bruce (Cincinatti Reds)
7. 1B Daric Barton (Oakland Athletics)
8. C Matt Wieters (Baltimore Orioles)
9. 3B Andy LaRoche (Los Angeles Dodgers)
10. OF Travis Snider (Toronto Blue Jays)
11. LF Matt LaPorta (Milwaukee Brewers)
12. SS Reid Brignac (Tampa Bay Rays)
13. RHSP Wade Davis (Tampa Bay Rays)
14. C Geovany Soto (Chicago Cubs)
15. 1B Joey Votto (Cincinatti Reds)
16. CF Desmond Jennings (Tampa Bay Rays)
17. 2B Matt Antonelli (San Diego Padres)
18. CF Cameron Maybin (Florida Marlins)
19. LHSP Fautino De Los Santos (Oakland Athletics)
20. LHSP Brett Anderson (Oakland Athletics)
21. LF Chase Headley (San Diego Padres)
22. CF Jordan Schafer (Atlanta Braves)
23. LF Chris Marrero (Washington Nationals)
24. RHSP Ian Kennedy (New York Yankees)
25. C Jeff Clement (Seattle Mariners)
26. RHSP Johnny Cueto (Cincinnati Reds)
27. SS Mike Moustakas (Kansas City Royals)
28. LHSP Jacob McGee (Tampa Bay Rays)
29. 3B Angel Villalona (San Francisco Giants)
30. RF Jason Heyward (Atlanta Braves)
31. RHSP Rick Porcello (Detroit Tigers)
32. C Hank Conger (Los Angeles Angels)
33. LHSP Gio Gonzalez (Oakland Athletics)
34. SS Chin-Lung Hu (Los Angeles Dodgers)
35. 1B Kyle Blanks (San Diego Padres)
36. LHSP Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers)
37. SS Carlos Triunfel (Seattle Mariners)
38. 1B Lars Anderson (Boston Red Sox)
39. LHSP Adam Miller (Cleveland Indians)
40. RHSP Homer Bailey (Cincinnati Reds)
41. CF Jacoby Ellsbury (Boston Red Sox)
42. SS Jed Lowrie (Boston Red Sox)
43. CF Austin Jackson (New York Yankees)
44. LF Wlad Balentien (Seattle Mariners)
45. OF Ryan Kalish (Boston Red Sox)
46. SS Chris Nelson (Colorado Rockies)
47. LHSP Aaron Laffey (Cleveland Indians)
48. C JR Towles (Houston Astros)
49. RHRP Edwar Ramirez (New York Yankees)
50. LHSP Frank Morales (Colorado Rockies)
51. C Jesus Montero (New York Yankees)
52. RHSP Jarrod Parker (Arizona Diamondbacks)
53. LHSP Neftali Feliz (Texas Rangers)
54. RHSP Trevor Cahill (Oakland Athletics)
55. LHSP Tyler Robertson (Minnesota Twins)
56. RHSP Greg Reynolds (Colorado Rockies)
57. RHSP Nick Adenhart (Los Angeles Angels)
58. 3B Neil Walker (Pittsburgh Pirates)
59. RHRP Casey Weathers (Colorado Rockies)
60. LHSP Scott Elbert (Los Angeles Dodgers)
61. 1B Beau Mills (Cleveland Indians)
62. RHSP James Simmons (Oakland Athletics)
63. 1B Steven Pearce (Pittsburgh Pirates)
64. 3B Brandon Wood (Los Angeles Angels)
65. OF Carlos Gonzalez (Oakland Athletics)
66. OF Jose Tabata (New York Yankees)
67. RHSP Justin Masterson (Boston Red Sox)
68. LHSP Zach Braddock (Milwaukee Brewers)
69. RHSP Chris Tillman (Seattle Mariners)
70. C John Jaso (Tampa Bay Rays)
71. LHSP Manny Parra (Milwaukee Brewers)
72. 1B Jordan Brown (Cleveland Indians)
73. CF Fernando Martinez (New York Mets)
74. OF Engel Beltre (Texas Rangers)
75. LHSP Cole Rohrbough (Atlanta Braves)
76. SS Elvis Andrus (Texas Rangers)
77. RHSP Jordan Zimmerman (Washington Nationals)
78. RHSP Mat Latos (San Diego Padres)
79. LHSP Brett Cecil (Toronto Blue Jays)
80. LHSP Nick Hagadone (Boston Red Sox)
81. SS Brent Lillibridge (Atlanta Braves)
82. RHSP Jordan Walden (Los Angeles Angels)
83. RHSP Jair Jurrjens (Atlanta Braves)
84. 1B Val Pascucci (Florida Marlins)
85. 2B Chris Coghlan (Florida Marlins)
86. CF Ben Revere (Minnesota Twins)
87. RHSP Sean Gallagher (Chicago Cubs)
88. SS Todd Frazier (Cincinnati Reds)
89. LHSP Jaime Garcia (St. Louis Cardinals)
90. RHSP Aaron Poreda (Chicago White Sox)
91. C Maximiliano Ramirez (Texas Rangers)
92. 3B Ian Stewart (Colorado Rockies)
93. C Taylor Teagarden (Texas Rangers)
94. C Josh Donaldson (Chicago Cubs)
95. 2B German Duran (Texas Ranger)
96. 1B Chris Carter (Oakland Athletics)
97. RHSP James McDonald (Los Angeles Dodgers)
98. 3B Matt Sweeney (Los Angeles Angels)
99. 2B Tony Thomas (Chicago Cubs)
100. SS Jason Donald (Philadelphia Phillies)
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I already heard so much about Joba last year that I can’t believe that he is still a prospect.
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