Baltimore Orioles Top 5 Prospects
Everybody likes lists, right? So for the next… well… 17 years in all likelihood, I’ll be going over every team’s top 5 prospects, alphabetically and starting with the AL. Shall we?
1. C Matt Wieters
Who?: I suppose it’s fitting that we start this off with the #1 prospect, period. You’d think that I’ve verbally gushed over Wieters enough over the last little while… guess not. Wieters is just the absolute epitome of a prospect. Hit for average? Yep. Walk? Uh-huh. Power? Definitely. Defense? Sure. Premium position? Check. Healthy? Affirmative. Find me something wrong with him. I dare you.
Projection: Considering that the O’s current starting catcher has a .684 OPS and Wieters is tearing it up in AA, the most likely scenario is that Wieters will be the opening day starter in 2009. If not, it’s hard to imagine that he won’t have that spot by mid-season. Whenever he gets here, he’ll be an instant impact player.
2. RHSP Chris Tillman
Who?: One of the prospects received in the Bedard deal, Tillman highlights an excellent trio of pitching prospects for the O’s that rivals any combination of young pitchers out there - Joba/Hughes/Kennedy, Cahill/Anderson/Inoa/Simmons, Price/McGee/Davis/Hellickson, etc. Tillman is only 20 and putting up a promising showing in AA, with only his inconsistent command holding him back. Tillman shows an excellent hard fastball and a real plus-curve, with a kind of meh change-up so far.
Projection: Tillman could actually be in contention for a roster spot on Opening Day, but I sure hope he isn’t. Tillman is very young and still very raw, so he could certainly use up to another full year in the minors. It’s not like the Orioles are going anywhere next year anyway, except for perhaps another mystical charge for .500. There’s still quite a bit of bust factor in Tillman, due to his control issues, but at the very least he should be a major league starter. At the most, Tillman could be as good as anybody.
3. LHSP Brian Matusz
Who?: The guy drafted 4th overall this year, that’s who! It’s true that I believe Christian Friedrich is a very slightly better prospect than Matusz, but I had him ranked as the 9th best draft prospect and the 44th best prospect overall, so it’s pretty clear what I think of Matusz. Despite being usually considered the best prospect in this year’s draft, Matusz doesn’t have quite the ceiling of a guy like Tillman. While Tillman has ace potential, Matusz slots more in that #2 area. Matusz throws a deep arsenal with tremendous command, but not much in the way of true plus stuff and won’t be likely to be overpowering in the majors like he was in college.
Projection: #2-3 starter. He’s unlikely to sign very long before the August 15th deadline, so it’s highly likely that he won’t see any time in the minors this year, beyond perhaps some time in the winter leagues. Still, Matusz is a very polished and talented pitcher who won’t take too long to go through the minor leagues. If everything works out, he’ll be around the majors in the September 2010-Opening Day 2011 timeframe.
4. RHSP Jake Arrieta
Who?: Arrieta is a pleasant mixture of Matusz and Tillman. Arrieta was essentially a 2007 1st round pick. He dropped to the 5th round due to contract demands (guess who his agent is!), but ended up signed for a 1st round bonus of $1.1m. His scouting report reads something like Matusz’, as he has very good but not overpowering stuff. His best pitch is his slider, but he also has a low to mid-90s fastball and a decent change. His calling card was always supposed to be excellent command, but that’s where the Tillman side comes in. Arrieta’s last year in college showed a big spike in walks, with 50 in 98.2 innings, and that’s continued on to this year. Arrieta is putting up very Tillmanish numbers with 112 K and 48 BB in 106 High-A innings, although 12 of those walks have come in 2 games and 9 innings.
Projection: Arrieta is likely to spend all of 2009 in AA, which could lead to him challenging for a spot in the middle of the rotation mid-2010.
5. OF Nolan Reimold
Who?: I’m not a believer in Rowell or Erbe, and there’s no other stud in the 2009 draft, so there’s a rather large gap between 4 and 5 here. Reimold used to have strikeout concerns, but he’s developed very well and has 53 Ks and 42 BB in 422 BB. He shows decent power, with 42 XBH this year and 45 XBH in his list almost-full year in 2006. His defense should push him to a corner spot, likely RF where his good arm will certainly play.
Projection: He’s 24 and in AA, so don’t expect much in the way of ceiling. Still, he looks like he’ll be a starting outfielder, and that’s certainly worth something. He’ll be up sometime next year or September this year.
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