Boston Red Sox Top 5 Prospects
Before the season, I said the Red Sox had the 3rd best farm system in baseball, behind the Rays and A’s. The graduations of Clay Buchholz, Jacoby Ellsbury and Justin Masterson have probably dropped them a little, but with six players in the Top 100 this system is still very, very good.
1. 1B Lars Anderson
Who?: Anderson’s .317/.408/.513 line as a 20-year-old in High-A should be very impressive, but because he was hitting in Lancaster, it’s not spectacular. There’s more than enough to like about Anderson as a hitter, but he’s still mostly potential rather than reality, especially in the power department. He has recently been promoted to AA Portland, which is a more neutral, even pitching-oriented park. Anderson’s plate approach is excellent, and nobody expects his defense to be good, he just needs to add power.
Projection: If Anderson impresses down the stretch run as a 20-year-old in AA, it would go a long way in cementing Anderson as one of baseball’s hitting prospects. Even if he doesn’t, it won’t hurt him much, if at all; the dude’s 20. With the Lowell-Youk-Ortiz trio assuring that Boston’s 1B/DH spot will be filled, the Sox won’t rush to bring Anderson up before, say, Opening Day 2010. When he gets here, he’s likely to be a really excellent hitter.
2. RHSP Michael Bowden
Who?: Bowden didn’t really come out of nowhere, as he was a respectable prospect before the season started, but he definitely broke out in a big way. Bowden showcases mainly a low-90’s fastball and a plus curve, but his calling card is his command. Bowden struggled in his AA promotion last year, but in High-A he struck out 26.1% of batters while walking a miniscule 4.5%; this year in AA he struck out 25.0% of batters while walking 6.0%.
Projection: Bowden was promoted to AAA this week. Bowden will likely be a major league starter the first time there’s an open rotation spot in 2009, or perhaps even sometime this year, especially if Buchholz’s struggles continue. He’ll be somewhere in the #2-3 starter range.
3. SS Jed Lowrie
Who?: There’s really no mystery about Lowrie, he is what he is at this point. He’s essentially Dustin Pedroia, making a ton of contact with decent walk totals and respectable power for a middle-infielder. He plays shortstop, but he probably shouldn’t.
Projection: He’s no five-star prospect, but Lowrie should be an above-average producer at whichever middle-infield position he plays, and there are plenty of teams out there who would love to have that. Lowrie’s ETA is right now, as he’s doing a very nice job filling in for an injured and crappy Julio Lugo. Unfortunately, Lowrie is likely blocked by Lugo’s contract, so his best shot is with another team.
4. CF Ryan Kalish
Who?: Kalish’s .280/.371/.361 line doesn’t look very good, but the power outage is due to a breaking a bone in his hand last season. When the power returns - it’s not monstrous power by any means, but he can hit - there will be a lot to like about Kalish. The plate approach is excellent, and there are a lot of offensive and defensive tools here, like his plus-speed. Kalish is a raw CF, but he has the athleticism to play there if he develops.
Projection: Kalish is only in A-ball, so there’s a lot of variance as to what he can be, and when. Kalish as a CF is a very good prospect who can be at least above-average in all facets of the game, with potential for more. Kalish as a RF is not that spectacular. He should probably play next season at High-A Lancaster, so it’s not especially likely that he’ll see the majors before September 2010 or Opening Day 2011.
5. OF Josh Reddick
Who?: Reddick came in as a bit of an under-the-radar JuCo player, but he’s a very impressive prospect who I might even underrate. (But probably not). Most of his value comes from a very legitimate bat. He has a career .323/.363/.550 line in his two years in the minors, with 35 HR, 93 XBH and only 108 Ks in 801 PA. There’s really no question that he can hit. Can you spot the red flag? Yeah, it’s somewhere in between the .323 BA and .363 OBP. He doesn’t walk very much, with only 48 career walks, and that’s the biggest reason he’s ranked where he is. Defensively, he profiles as a fine RF with a good arm.
Projection: The walks hurt, but he’s still a good hitter. He’s likely going to but up a line something like .280/.335/.480, ETA probably Opening Day 2010.
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