Brett Wallace, Pedro Alvarez, Eric Hosmer
We’re going with an all-slugger cast today. By the way, this draft has a lot of guys like this. If you’re like me and love 250 pound monsters who’ll walk 200 times a year and hit 697 foot homers, this is your kind of draft.
1B/LF Brett Wallace
If Yonder Alonso isn’t the best college bat in the draft, this is one of the two guys who would be. In an article last week, Kevin Goldstein stated that Wallace “might have the best chance of being a consistent .400+ on-base player in the big leagues” and one scout is of the opinion that “if Wallace doesn’t hit in the big leagues, I don’t know who does”. High praise, obviously.
In 2006 and 2007, Wallace put up lines of .371/.439/.583 and .423/.500/.719 respectively, combining for 54 BB and 60 K. This year Wallace is tied for 6th in the nation with a .527 OBP and is 7th with a 1.291 OPS - obviously, that means he’s slugging .764 to go with that. I think it’s safe to say that he can hit, and the scouts agree with the stats, although he doesn’t necessarily have lighthouse power.
The knock on Wallace is one you’ll likely hear about several top players; athleticism, conditioning, yada yada yada. The boy can play.
3B/1B Pedro Alvarez
Surprisingly, I don’t consider Alvarez to be including in the top 3 hitters that I alluded to above. Alvarez has put up the rate stats you look for, with .329/.456/.675 and .386/.463/.684 line in 2006 and 2007 respectively. He walks a lot, and he may have the most power of anybody in the draft.
The problem comes with the third ‘True Outcome’; he strikes out too much. Alvarez struck out 64 times in 240 AB in 2006 and 65 times in 272 AB in 2007. For a minor leaguer, these numbers would be concerning. For a college player, they are downright alarming.
Athleticism…
What you’ll hear brought up most in discussions surrounding Alvarez are the two words GMs have come to fear:
Scott Boras.
As you might expect, Alvarez’s price range is reportedly in the $8-$10m range, and that more than any talent flaws will decide where he goes. Worth noting is that reports say that more and more teams will ignore slotting recommendations this year, so there won’t be any Rich Porcelloesque free-fall this year.
1B Eric Hosmer
In 2006, JP Ricciardi drafted high-schooler Travis Snider in the first round. Draftniks fell off their chairs: JP? Draft a high schooler? That never happened. But it did… sort of. High school players are, stereotypically… well, look at Tim Beckham. Snider did NOT fit the profile of the kind of high school player JP avoided. Snider’s plate approach was so refined, and he was so advanced for his age that Snider was practically an 18-year-old college draft pick.
How is this relevant? Well, Hosmer is in very much the same situation. Hosmer has fantastic plate discipline and power, and for a change, is the first slugger I’ve talked about who has the defense to match the bat. If you draft Hosmer, and you certainly should, you’re not keeping him as a jar on the shelf to be opened in 5-6 years. Like Snider, you should expect Hosmer to be one of the youngest players wherever he plays and to be in contention for a major league spot in 3-4 years.
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