Detroit Tigers Top 5 Prospects
We went from a quite bad farm system in the White Sox, to a quite good one in the Indians, now unfortunately we’re back to a quite bad one. The Tigers’ only representative in the Top 100 was Rick Porcello. Beyond him, there’s not a whole lot. The farm system was already pretty mediocre before the Maybin trade. After that, it’s very thin indeed.
1. RHSP Rick Porcello
Who?: Reputedly the best high-school pitching prospect in years, apparently. While every list in the world was ranking Porcello in the Top 15 before the season, I ranked him at #31. That might look low, but if you knew how I felt about high school pitching prospects who hadn’t pitched a single minor league inning, you’d know that that was quite high indeed. His drop to #48 isn’t so much of a representation of Porcello, as I rank him close to the same, but there was quite a bit of an influx of talent in front of him.
Porcello throws a nasty mid-high 90s fastball with two breaking balls, reminiscent of Homer Bailey’s plus-plus FB and plus-plus curve combination. However, as Bailey’s shown, stuff isn’t everything. Porcello has held his own in High-A, especially considering his age, but he’s been far from dominating. He’s an excellent pitching prospect, but hold the parade for now; he has a long way to go.
Projection: His ceiling is obviously as an absolute ace. Due to signing a major league contract, the Tigers will unfortunately feel pressured to promote Porcello quickly. Unless he goes out and dominates the rest of the year, he’ll likely start 2009 in High-A again, moving to AA soon enough. I assume he won’t be starting Opening Day 2010, but he seems likely to see plenty of major league time that year.
2. RHRP Ryan Perry
Who?: The Tigers’ first pick this year. He’s not much different from your usual college reliever, showing two good pitches. He throws a fastball that can, and has reached 100 MPH with a plus slider. With that repertoire he should have absolutely dominated college, and he did quite well, but he wasn’t untouchable. The culprit is that his fastball doesn’t have quite the movement you’d hope for, and major leaguers can hit even a 100 MPH FB if it’s straight.
Projection: The FB movement is probably nothing more than a nitpick, and he’s likely to be just what he’s projected to be; a very good late-innings reliever, and he’s likely to do it soon. He should be up sometime next year.
3. LF Wilkin Ramirez
Who?: Wilkin Ramirez’s tools have always been pretty impressive, but his production has been nil, due to a terrible plate approach. (Think Greg Golson/Halman - lite). He’s still striking out a rather obscene amount (28%), but he’s found the ability to take a walk. After walking just 10 times in 263 PA in 2006 and 28 times in 476 PA in 2007, he’s walked 31 times in 350 PA this year. Not a tremendous amount, but pretty good. Adding patience to his repertoire of pretty good power, speed and defensive ability has made Ramirez a legitimate prospect.
Projection: Ramirez is as likely to become nothing as he is to become an above-average player, but in this system anybody with above-average potential is a gem.
4. LHSP Casey Crosby
Who?: Crosby was a pretty highly-ranked pitching prospect last year who fell to the 5th round due to signability concerns, where he was snatched up by the tigers - think Rick Porcello-Ultra Lite. He was ranked mostly on the the strength of his projectability and fastball. His secondary stuff lagged behind at draft time, and whether it’s improved or not as of yet is unknown. Due to his late signing, he didn’t pitch last year, and in the off-season he underwent Tommy John surgery which sidelined him for 2008 as well.
Projection: Again, Crosby has a huge change of being an absolute bust, but he’s got impact potential, so on he goes.
5. 2B Michael Hollimon
Who?: Hollimon takes a lot of walks, has great makeup and is an acceptable defender up the middle. He strikes out a ton, but he fell into some power this year, so he makes this list as a very odd 2B prospect.
Projection: An average to above-average hitting 2B who won’t be a defensive butcher.
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