Houston Astros Top 5 Prospects
Sorry for the lack of posts this week, but I just moved into my dorm and I’ve literally had trouble finding time to eat and sleep, let alone blog.
My lord, it’s not that easy to find prospects in this system. It’s not nearly as barren as a year ago - a draft that I ranked among the top ten in baseball as well as the emergence of Brian Bogusevic helps - but there’s just no depth whatsoever. The top of the system is good enough that the top 5 looks pretty decent, but I couldn’t find a good #6 if you put a gun to my head.
1. RHSP Jordan Lyles
Who?: One of my favourite high school pitchers in the draft - although perhaps that’s not saying a whole lot. Lyles is very athletic - he was a star in baseball, football and basketball in high school. Lyles is far from a finished product, but not in the ways you’d imagine. Lyles already has excellent command of his fastball, change and breaking ball, but it’s his velocity and movement that have yet to be very refined. Lyles came in and cut up the rookie league, striking out 30.8% of hitters while walking only 4.8%. He should be a very interesting prospect to watch next year.
Projection: He definitely has #2 potential. I’d like to see him pitch a full season of Low-A ball next year.
2. C Jason Castro
Who?: Not Justin Smoak, that’s for sure. This draft has had it’s share of blunders. Washington’s bungling of the negotiations with Crow, Cole’s change of heart to refusing to sign and especially the Hosmer/Alvarez situation have emerged as the biggest stories of this year. Another one that should be tacked on to the list is the Astros passing on Smoak - who I feel was the best prospect in the draft for Castro. Obviously, as he’s ranked this high, I feel Castro is a fine prospect in his own right. He has a very good plate approach, pretty good defense and enough power to get by. His biggest flaw - he’s not Justin Smoak.
Projection: How’s Jason Varitek for a comp?
3. OF Brian Bogusevic
Who?: Another fun one. In 2005, Bogey was among a two-way athlete among the top prospects in the nation. The Astros took him and, as they have been known to do, made the wrong decision; they took him as a pitcher. Bogey was a failure as a prospect, totalling a 5.06 ERA among some other rather ugly stats. However, there have always been anecdotes about scouts who have watched batting practice and wondered just who it was who was hitting moonshots over the fence; then finding out that it was the starting pitcher. This year, the Astros switched him back to the outfield, and he’s thrived. Despite not being a full-time hitter since 2005, Bogey hasn’t missed a step, totalling 25 K, 20 BB, 15 XBH and going 9/10 in SB in 173 PA.
Projection: He’s never really been much of a power hitter, even in college, so he won’t be a star. Still, he can combine his plate approach, plus speed and good defense to be a pretty good OF. He can either be a good offensive CF with meh defense or an average offensive RF with good defense.
4. RHSP Bud Norris
Who?: Norris was actually in pretty serious contention for my Pre-Season Top 100, but he was left off for a lot of very good reasons. His season last year isn’t as impressive as it looks because he was just a 22-year-old in Low-A and his change was a well below average pitch. His change still isn’t very good at all, but at least he’s shown that perhaps he can hold the fort with his 91-94 fastball and plus curve. After skipping High-A, Bud’s put up a good season in the Texas League. 84 K and 31 BB in 80 innings isn’t outstanding, but it’s promising.
Projection: A #4-#5 guy who should be in the majors perhaps next September. He could be up earlier, but I hope not. Roids
5. CF Jay Austin
Who?: It was hard to find a good #5, so I just combined two of my tricks; list the next best player from this year’s draft and look for ceiling, and I found Jay Austin. Austin is one of those raw, toolsy high school players that I’m not a big fan of, and he’s shown it with his .512 OPS this year. He’s obviously tremendously raw as a hitter, but he’s got real plus-plus speed with plus arm strength and a ton of bat speed.
Projection: Austin is one of those players who, if he ever sees AA, has the potential to be a very good player.
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