Player Profile: Kyle Blanks
Kyle Blanks is a mammoth presence on the field, standing 6′6″ and reputably near 300 pounds, but his presence has been largely absent from this year’s top prospect lists. He does not appear on Baseball America or Kevin Goldstein’s Top 100, or even Project Prospect’s Top 150, although Keith Law does have him ranked as #68. Between all these numbers, I believe he is the 35th best prospect in baseball. Now, I will navigate through why I believe that is the case.
First, a statistical look:
2005 (18, R): 200 PA, .299/.420/.500, 49/10/1/7, 24.5 K%, 12.5 BB%, 36.7 XBH%, 3 SB/1 CS
2006 (19, A): 359 PA, .292/.382/.455, 90/20/0/10, 22.0 K%, 10.0 BB%, 33.3 XBH%, 2 SB/0 CS
2007 (20, A+): 531 PA, .301/.380/.540, 140/31/4/24, 18.5 K%, 8.3 BB%, 42.1 XBH%, 11 SB/2 CS
Just to explain what you are seeing here. Those stats are PA, BA/OBP/SLG, H/2B/3B/HR, K/PA%, BB/PA%, XBH/H (ie. how many hits went for extra bases). I think this paints a good offensive portrait, including the major offensive traits; contact, patience and power.
Despite Kyle Blanks’ size, he has showed he is able to control the strike zone. From striking out in 24.5% of his at bats to 18.5% (a better than average number), he shows he has very good bat control. In a concerning trend, Blanks’ walk rate has fallen alongside his strikeout rate. However, 8.3% is still an above-average number. If it falls again this year, that is certainly a concern.
It is also an eye-opener that a first baseman who is listed at 281 pounds, which is likely an understatement, shows that his game includes some speed. He has stolen 16 bases at an 84.2% rate, including 11 last year at an 84.6% rate. This suggests something approaching the athleticism of NFL defensive linemen; mammoths who nevertheless possess enough speed to terrorize offenses.
Blanks’ prospect status revolves around his power. Blanks started off slow in that regard, hitting just 17 HR combined in his first 559 PA, roughly a full season. That took a swing last year when he hit 24 in 531 PA. This should not have been unexpected. David Gassko of The Hardball Times published an article that suggested that weight has a positive correlation with power development. He posits that every extra ten pounds adds roughly one extra home run for the next year’s projection, although you should keep in mind that this is a broad statement and that each case is unique. However, Kyle Blanks (280+) has to be considered at least 40 pounds heavier than the average first baseman. This would suggest that his homerun total could improve by roughly four more than an averagely-sized first baseman; a very significant number.
Doubters to Blanks’ breakout season point out that it was accomplished in the California league, a notorious hitter’s paradise. However, while the California league is largely populated with hitter’s parks, Blanks’ home Lake Elsinore is an exception. According to Baseball Think Factory’s Minor League Park Multipliers, Lake Elsinore’s home run multiplier has been 0.93 the last three years. This means that Blanks’ home park gives up 7% less home runs than the average park. Considering that he plays half his games there and half his games in hitter’s parks, you could estimate that Blanks’ 2007 was roughly home run neutral, and therefore a legitimate breakout.
Now, a scouting perspective. This is what Kyle Blanks looks like. Needless to say, he won’t be much of a jeans salesman. However, as I alluded to above, despite his - let’s go with ‘bulk’ - Blanks is a fine athlete. According to Kevin Goldstein’s scouting report, “He’s a surprising athlete for his size and a nimble first baseman, and shocked scouts by showing almost average running speed once he gets his big body going.” Looks can be deceiving, and despite his size Kyle Blanks is a solid all-around player adding solid defense to his repertoire.
Of course, Blanks’ game is his offense. Here’s one look. To get the obvious out of the way, Blanks carries his weight rather well. This hitting display speaks what many words may not. Even to my untrained eye, it is obvious that Blanks has excellent bat speed and lighthouse power. I would really love to know where some of those balls landed.
As for his plate discipline, it appears that the scouts agree with the statistics. Goldstein’s scouting report states that “Blanks provides an absolutely massive presence at the plate, combining good plate discipline with surprisingly adept batting skills and overwhelming raw power.” It’s clear by now that Blanks is far from a one-trick pony.
There are concerns, however, and they surround the obvious. No matter how good of an athlete you are, 280 pounds is 280 pounds. That is a lot of weight to carry, and if his conditioning doesn’t improve it would not be shocking to see Blanks suffer from knee/back problems or a propensity to fade away by September.
Overall, Blanks is a supremely talented player. He possesses plus-plus power, and that is complimented by an already-good and improving plate approach. He is mobile on the basepaths and in fielding his position. However, it may be that he will continue to go under appreciated. If Blanks is not traded, then he will face pitcher’s parks again in AA, AAA and the majors which will repress his production. Also, he will be blocked by Adrian Gonzalez, a tremendous player. Blanks may require a change of scenery, but wherever he goes, this uniquely talented player will be successful.
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