The Hub is Back - With Draft Stuff!
After a short - er, long - er, embarrassingly inappropriate hiatus, we’re back.
The time between late April and early May is my favourite time of the year. Why? That’s the timeframe that includes the NFL and MLB draft, and lord knows I love young players. So, between now and June 5th I’ll be focusing almost entirely on draft material. Are you excited? Me too. Let’s start getting acquainted with some of the names you should expect to hear early on draft day.
C Buster Posey
Posey is currently the favourite to go #1 overall to the Tampa Bay Rays, and that may come as a surprise. Posey certainly does NOT fit in with the usual profile of a 1:1 pick. Generally you’d expect a flashy, toolsy high school centerfielder who’s projected for a 30-30 season before he can legally drink.
Posey is a low-risk low-ceiling college catcher. He is a plus defender with a very good arm that is also exhibited in the ninth inning, where he serves as the closer for the Seminoles. He has a solid plate approach with a roughly 1:1 K:BB ratio, but he has never been projected for more than gap power. A current hot streak has some optimists wondering if 20-25 HR is possible, but considering he combined for 7 total HR in his first two years, we’ll put that in the longshot pile for now.
Don’t let me fool you into thinking that Posey is a Matheny/Molina reincarnation. In fact, as of last update (Current year college baseball stats are hard to find) Posey leads the nation in both OBP (.572) and SLG (.880). The only question is whether these numbers are projectable to major league success, or will fall off the table when Posey is taken away from college-level pitching.
Posey certainly looks like a good player, but 1:1? Is position scarcity this much of a factor? Can a plus-defense/good bat catcher really be the most valuable player in the draft? To me, the idea of Posey going to the Rays smells too much of drafting for need, and that’s a no-no.
1B Yonder Alonso
THAT’S what I’m talking about. In 2007, Alonso walked (64) more than twice as much as he struck out (31). He even had more XBH (32) than strikeouts. This year, he is 5th in the nation in OPS (1.362) and 1st in walks (63). This is what we call a polished hitter.
The problems come when you try to project anything but his plate approach. Alonso has shown very good but not lighthouse power. Beyond that, he is not praised for conditioning, defence, and athleticism.
With Alonso, you run into similar problems to Buster Posey. Is this, a first-baseman with a plus-plus plate approach but not much else, worth a premium draft pick? I believe Alonso may be the best bat in the draft, so my answer would be yes - unfortunately, my opinion doesn’t count.
LHP Brian Matusz
My bosses (ie. the voices in my head) tell me I have to include a pitcher, so I picked this guy’s name out of a hat. It turns out he’s pretty good.
Unlike past years where you’ll find pitchers compared to Randy Johnson (David Price) and Pedro Martinez (Tim Lincecum), no one pitcher in this draft projects as an ace. Some believe that Aaron Crow is the best arm in the draft, but my money would be on Matusz.
Matusz has a typical LHP repertoire. He throws a solid FB in the low and occasionally mid-90’s range, complimented by a very good curve and a plus change.
The production is certainly there. Coming into 2008, Matusz combined for 256 Ks and 76 BB in 211 college innings. This year he is currently second in the nation with 122 strikeouts. Sure, it’s not exactly the same as David Price striking out 194 in 133 innings, but I’ll take it; and a team early in the draft will as well.
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welcome back!