Top 100 Prospects Review: The Top Ten!
Here we go, la crème de la crème. (What does that mean anyway? The cream of the cream? Huh?).
10. OF Travis Snider (Toronto Blue Jays)
Year In Review: Honestly, a bit of a disappointment. Skills-wise, Snider and LaPorta were rather similar prospects before the season started. They were both guys with a ton of power and hitting ability, no significant defensive value but who had shown a propensity for striking out in their professional career. (LaPorta’s was in a rather insignificant sample size, of course). They went very different ways. LaPorta returned to being the overall offensive beast of his college days while Snider’s strikeouts only worsened. He’s still very young with a lot of power and a lot of potential. However, he’s very likely to be either a DH or a bad defender in the majors, so for a guy like that to be this high on the list, he can’t be striking out 30% of the time. For the moment…
Prospect Status: Down.
9. 3B Andy LaRoche (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Year In Review: Have I mentioned that I hate Dodgers management? I really, really do. LaRoche has done nothing but mash at every minor league level, only to be relegated to a BENCH role in the majors! Behind such luminaries as Nomar Garciaparra and Blake freaking DeWitt. I mean, at least with Nomar you had some idea of what Colletti was thinking. (Veteran presence! Grit! Leadership! That young star is way too risky. Now go get me Juan Pierre.) But Blake DeWitt? This guy is a rookie with no minor league production and a .700 OPS in the majors. I guess it’s okay to be a young guy as long as you’re a cra - er, gritty young guy. Jesus. The only real concern with LaRoche is the continuing injury problems, but beyond that you can’t fault him just because the Dodgers don’t know what they’re doing.
Prospect Status: Neutral, graduated.
8. C Matt Wieters (Baltimore Orioles)
Year In Review: Phew, I needed something like this to cheer me up. Wieters has had an absolute monster season. He dominated the Carolina League for way too long to the tune of .345/.448/.576 until he was finally promoted to AA, which hasn’t slowed him down at all. (Sample size alert!). In 18 games, Wieters has hit .344/.417/.578. If you combined his stats from the two levels, Wieters is a catcher with an OPS over 1.000 in his first professional season. The power isn’t likely as good as it’s been so far. With 18 HR and only 14 2B, it’s probable that some of the HR have been lucky scrapers, and a couple of them will start to turn into 2B down the line. That’s just a nitpick. Beyond his awesome offense, there’s defense as well, despite being built like a 1B. (6′5″ 230). He’s no Yadier Molina or anything, but he has a rocket arm and he’s very athletic, making it unlikely that a position change will be necessary apart from giving him a rest to keep him in the line-up.
Prospect Status: Slightly up.
7. 1B Daric Barton (Oakland Athletics)
Year In Review: Ick. Let me preface this by saying that Barton’s only 22, and he has plenty of time to turn it around. His major league debut has been an absolute disaster. The walks are still there, but that’s about it. The power hasn’t developed yet, with only 15 of his 65 hits going for extra bases. More concerning is that Barton, who has always had perhaps the best plate approach in the minor leagues, is now striking out at a slightly alarming 22% rate. This isn’t altogether strange. Without his power developing, pitchers have no fear of challenging Barton with pitches in the strike zone. With Barton’s uber-patient approach, he is getting deep into counts, with many of them being pitcher-friendly, leading to too many strikeouts. He doesn’t need to be a 30-HR guy, but he needs to be *some* sort of power threat. Perhaps the best place for him right now is Sacramento.
Prospect Status: Down, graduated.
6. OF Jay Bruce (Cincinnati Reds)
Year In Review: Bruce got off to such a fantastic major league start that on June 20th, Kevin Goldstein, who rated Bruce as the best prospect in baseball, said “It’s impossible to move him up, but if I could, I would. He’s been that good.” Since that point he’s hit .211/.237/.338. Bruce has the power and defensive value - either as being a tremendous offensive CF or a very good defensive RF - to rate highly, but I never thought that he had the plate approach to be thought of as highly as he’s been.
Prospect Status: Neutral, graduated.
5. LHSP David Price (Tampa Bay Rays)
Year In Review: David Price really hasn’t had a bad start in pro-ball. He absolutely ate up the FSL (27.6 K%, 5.2 BB%, 0 HR), but has hit a slight roadblock at AA, with an unimpressive 22 Ks and 10 BBs in 26 innings. No worries. Price is still perhaps the most unhittable pitching prospect in baseball (still hasn’t allowed a home run in pro ball) with excellent command and control, and some of the best stuff of anyone.
Prospect Status: Neutral.
4. CF Colby Rasmus (St. Louis Cardinals)
Year In Review: Rasmus got off to an absolute god-awful start in his first two months, but scouts continued to rave. Nobody had any idea what was going on. For starters, he had a .245 BABIP, but for some reason nobody asked me. Still, that wouldn’t completely explain just how bad he was compared to last year. Perhaps June was a sign that absolute nothing was wrong, as Rasmus hit .333/.441/.535. The real story is that his power has absolutely been sapped. After 29 HR and 69 total XBH last year, Rasmus has only 11 HR and 14 2B. Even in June he only had 4 HR and 8 2B, which is not up to last year’s standards. A lot of Rasmus’ value comes from his excellent plate discipline and fantastic defense, but the power was the cherry on top that led to him being ranked this high, and even being considered for the #1 slot at one point. Without that, he’s certainly not a top 5. As a minor note, Rasmus has missed all but his first game in July with a groin injury, but it’s not likely anything serious.
Prospect Status: Slightly down.
3. 3B Evan Longoria (Tampa Bay Rays)
Year In Review: What a season this guy’s having. If this list was done over again, Longoria would have to take the #1 slot. Longoria has FORTY extra base hits in his first 84 games, to go with a very impressive 35 walks. Longoria’s striking out a little much, but that’s really no concern when you can hit and defend like he can. What else can you say about him? He’s an all-around star.
Prospect Status: Neutral, graduated.
2. RHSP Joba Chamberlain (New York Yankees)
Year In Review: The Yankees continued to be cautious with Joba, starting him in the bullpen, where he continued to make this whole pitching thing easy with 30 Ks and a 2.28 ERA in 23.2 innings. Moved to the rotation at the beginning of June, he’s been inconsistent but impressive as well. The strikeouts are still there, and batters just don’t have much luck at all when he has to swing. The inconsistency refers to his control. In 8 starts, he has walked 4 batters 4 times, for a total of 21 walks in 41.2 innings. Still, not everybody has to have pin-point control, and Joba only has to improve his control a little to be a very, very dominating pitcher.
Prospect Status: Neutral, graduated.
1. RHSP Clay Buchholz (Boston Red Sox)
Year In Review: Buchholz’s major league season this year has been very similar to Joba’s first experience in the rotation. He has an excellent 49 strikeouts in 47.2 innings, but those come with 25 walks. The only difference is that Joba’s been luckier. Joba’s been hit for around a .319 BABIP while Buchholz was hit for .367. Very unlucky. I think that Buchholz’s demotion was very premature. Buchholz started off with 4 very mediocre starts in the minors, so perhaps the Red Sox were right, or perhaps he was just disheartened at being demoted. (Major League Syndrome). Whatever the case, he’s turned it on since then, with his last 5 starts totalling 29 Ks and 5 BBs in 27.2 innings. Buchholz is just fine.
Prospect Status: Neutral.
Well, that’s that. Do you remember what comes next? We’re going to have an updated top 100 prospects, set to be released this Thursday. Can’t wait.
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