Toronto Blue Jays Top 5 Prospects
JP Ricciardi has always been criticized for a lack of drafting ability with the Jays - some deserved, some not. The only hitters he’s drafted who are producing in the majors are Adam Lind and Aaron Hill. (Although ‘producing’ may be a bit of a misnomer in Hill’s case this year). That being said, his pitching draftees like Dave Bush, Casey Janssen, Shaun Marcum, David Purcey and Jesse Litsch appear to be doing quite fine. As far as prospects go, there isn’t much depth at all, but there is enough top-end talent to make this roughly a middle-of-the-pack system. (No depth but a lot of top-end talent in the Jays system? What is this world coming to?)
1. OF Travis Snider
Who?: I’ll be honest, my gut said to put Cecil in this spot ahead of Snider. Cecil has been so impressive, and Snider’s strikeout totals so disheartening. Then, I look and see that Snider has walked 60 times this year, or that he has 51 XBH, or I watch him do something like this… then I look at his birthday, and I remember that Snider is a very special bat.
Projection: An MVP-caliber hitter, although he’ll either be a DH or a defensive liability.
2. LHSP Brett Cecil
Who?: Cecil was a bit of an unknown draftee last year, but he came out and had an excellent showing in short-season A-ball, landing him the 79th spot on my pre-season list. This year, Cecil has dominated. In 10.1 A+ IP, 77.2 AA IP, and 18.1 AAA IP, Cecil has combined for 119 K, 35 BB and a 62.2 GB%. Cecil is the rare and valuable pitcher who doesn’t walk many batters, doesn’t allow much contact, and when he allows contact, it’s on the ground. He has a three-pitch repertoire, all at least average, including a decent change, with a 91-94 sinking fastball and his out pitch, a hard slider.
Projection: He’ll certainly be challenging for a rotation spot in Spring Training. He’s likely to be a #3, but he certainly has #2 potential.
3. 1B David Cooper
Who?: The Jays’ 1st round pick, and the 12th on my pre-draft value board. Cooper has displayed his expected fantastic plate approach with a 14.3 K% and 10.0 BB%. He’s only hit 5 HR in 250 PA, but he does have 23 doubles and a triple in the meantime. He’s not a true slugger like Smoak or Alvarez, but he could certainly hit in the 25-30 range.
Projection: Something in the range of a .300/.380/.500 1B, give or take. A lot depends on whether he’ll be a 20-25 HR guy or a 30 HR guy.
4. C JP Arencibia
Who?: Another recent high pick by his namesake GM, a 1st round pick last year. Arencibia was seen as a bit of a reach at the time, and a disappointing debut had people ready to slap on the ‘BUST’ label. I haven’t heard from those people lately. Keeping in mind that Arencibia is a catcher, he’s hitting a somewhat lucky .306 (.334 BABIP), but he has sixty XBH. Our #1 ultra-slugger on this list has 51, but a catcher with 60 is dropped down to 4th. Why? Is it defense? Not really. Arencibia won’t win gold gloves, but he has a big arm and should stay at catcher. The problem is that he has 14 walks in 485 PA. So, despite his slightly lucky .306 BA, he still only has a .326 OBP.
Projection: Despite the lack of walks, the power indicates that he should still easily be a top ten catcher in the majors.
5. LHSP Brad Mills
Who?: Ricciardi obviously sees something he likes in Mills. After all, he’s spent not one, but two picks on Mills in 2006 and 2007. Mills didn’t sign after being picked in the 22nd round in 2006, but the Jays took another shot at him and signed him as a 4th round pick in 2007. Mills has certainly lived up to those expectations. Mills’ excellent Low-A performance (92 K/28 BB in 81.1 IP) may be discounted, as he’s 23 and quite old for the level. However, he didn’t miss a step after being promoted to High-A (34/14 in 31.1), and he’s kept on chugging in AA (21/7/20.2). Mills is more of a control/command pitcher, not showing tremendous stuff or a true out pitch. He throws a good low-90s FB, a decent mid-70s curve, and a change.
Projection: A #4 pitcher.
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Shocked that you didn’t have Kyle Ginley at #1.