Two Rays Prospects Belatedly Hit the Show
Injuries have given two prospects the opportunity that the Rays didn’t want to.
To open the season, uber-prospect Evan Longoria (#3 here at The Hub) was demoted in favour of the has-a-chance-to- be-decent-but-not-quite-uber Willy Aybar (career 110 OPS+, but 97 in his last healthy year).
Jeff Niemann (unlisted, could’ve made a top 105 list) was demoted behind failing prospects Edwin Jackson (career 81 ERA+) and Jason Hammell (68).
It seemed like there was no really good baseball reason for making these decisions. However, there was a very reasonable justification: leaving Longoria and Niemann in the minors would delay their service clocks, and perhaps keep two valuable players under Rays control for an extra year.
Now, injuries to Willy Aybar, Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza have given Longoria and Aybar their shot, at least for a little while.
Aybar will be out at least two weeks with a strained hamstring. For Longoria this will not be an insignificant time. Obviously, any player’s major league debut will be one of the most important events in his career. To add on to that, a strong major league showing will quiet any of those who have been sent into hysterics by Longoria’s .200/.333/.200 start in AAA.Longoria is a tremendous talent and the definition of a complete hitter. He has a compact swing combined with elite bat speed. The combination of those two are what allow him to hit for both average and power; Longoria has only slugged under .500 at any level once, his 109 PA AA debut in 2006. Likewise, he has only struck out over 20% of the time once, in his 121 PA debut in AAA last year.
I’m running out of synonyms for ‘excellent’, so let’s just say that his plate approach is pretty damn good. In a recurring theme, Longoria has only walked in less than 10% of his PA’s once, in the aforementioned AA debut. To make the package perfect, when Longoria sees a pitch he likes he is very aggressive, which leads to his plus-power.
Niemann is not the caliber of prospect that Longoria is, but he is still quite solid. (Let’s see how many synonyms I can stick in for ’solid’). Niemann is a massive specimen - listed at 6′9″ and 280 pounds - who comes at you with a low-mid 90s fastball combined with a good change and slider.
Niemann’s star has diminished significantly, though. 2007 was the first year in which he struck out less than 25% of batters he faced (21.2), and he also had the highest HR rate of his career, a slightly troubling 2.2%. He’s 24, not 21, so these struggles in his AAA debut have caused his projection to fall from the front-end of the rotation to roughly the 3-4 slot. In a redeeming note, 2007 also saw Niemann’s BB% improve for the third straight year, to a very decent 7.9.
Unfortunately, when the injured players get healthy, Longoria and Niemann will likely head to the minors so the Rays can save a nice chunk of change. However, when Super 2 Status is avoided, I will hope to see these two in the majors right away. Willy Aybar can solidify an already good bench, while Hammel and Jackson can fight for the #5 spot - in AAA.
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