Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Skipworth, Aaron Hicks, Jemile Weeks
A lot of high school guys today, which I don’t like, so bear with me.
Jake Odorizzi
I told myself that I’d try to make a legitimate profile of Odorizzi, without just focusing on the fact that he’s a high school pitcher, but it’s very hard. I can’t in good conscience hint in any way that this guy has a good shot to be a successful major leaguer. He doesn’t. It’s certainly possible, but the odds are against it. If the draft is a crapshoot, then drafting high school pitchers is a game of Russian roulette.
Odorizzi is off to a good start, since I haven’t read that he “makes his craft look easy”. Seriously, do scouts often say that a player makes baseball look hard? Or is that reserved for the Ecksteins of the world?
Odorizzi has the usual power repertoire with a ~93-94 4-seamer and a sinking 2-seamer a couple of ticks below that. He has a slow low-70s curve that also has good reviews; he also nice a nice slider and a change that projects as average. Sounds good, right? Why wouldn’t anybody want him? Let’s see:
1. 5 years away from the majors.
2. Questionable fastball command.
3. Questions about competitiveness.
Yeah, that’s always the kind of package I’m looking for in my first round pick.
Kyle Skipworth
Don’t worry, my distaste regarding high school pitchers doesn’t extend to high school hitters in general, and certainly not a guy like Skipworth.
Cal Ripken was really the guy who opened the door for ‘big’ shortstops. Could Joe Mauer, Matt Wieters and the big catchers be next? Probably not, but Skipworth, standing 6′3″ and approaching 200 lbs would certainly fall under that designation.
His game is what you’d expect from his stature. He will hit for plus power to all fields, and a smooth swing that may allow him to hit for a high average at the major league level.
As you’d expect, his defense is currently questionable, but he has an excellent arm and scouts expect him to be a fine defensive catcher. Overall, if you hear this guy’s name at your team’s pick, you should be very happy.
Aaron Hicks
Aaron Hicks is a two-way athlete. As a pitcher, he throws a hard fastball and curve combo with plenty of movement, but his control is - not to mince words - terrible. This profile is assuming that whichever team drafts him has a brain, and will develop him as a hitter.
As a hitter, Hicks is exactly what you’d expect from a top high school prospect. He is a dynamic switch-hitting centerfielder with five legitimately plus tools.
The only questionable one is whether he’ll be able to hit for average consistently at the next level, and that is something that can only be learned through time. As for the other four tools, there’s not much to worry about. He currently has batting-practice power that allows him to hit impressive blasts during games. Again, he may or may not be able to do this consistently at the next level, but that is less of a question than his ability to consistently hit for average.
Hicks has absolutely plus speed, plus range and a plus rocket arm that should combine to make him a terror on the basepaths and in centerfield. At worst, Hicks projects to be speedy plus-defender who occasionally helps out with the bat; at best, Hicks projects to be an absolute star.
Jemile Weeks
Phew. After that little foray into the terrifying world of 18-year-old baseball prospects, it’s nice to be able to cover a prospect like second-baseman Jemile Weeks. First of all, yes, he’s Rickie’s brother if you weren’t already aware. The similarities don’t stop at the name. (And DNA and stuff).
Jemile’s a switch-hitter with a fantastic plate approach and decent power. He has an excellent ability to stay back on the ball, recognize if it’s a ball or a strike, and if it’s in the strike zone he’ll slap at it with a short, compact swing that hits sharp line drives all over the park. If he really likes a pitch, that short, compact swing will deposit the ball over the fence. Does any of this sound familiar? Jemile’s put this hitting ability on display since day 1:
2006: .352/.446/.555, 27 K/37 BB, 32 XBH (6 HR) in 256 ABs
2007: .298/.393/.489, 27 K/27 BB, 20 XBH (5 HR) in 188 ABs
2008: .365/.444/.644, 36 K/28 BB, 31 XBH (11 HR) in 208 ABs
Defense is where Weeks has some questions. He has the athleticism and the range to get to the ball, but that’s where it stops. Weeks has trouble making the play when he gets to the ball, and he has below average arm strength. With plus range and weak playmaking skills, some think a move to center would be best for him; either way, Weeks will make one team very happy on draft day and onward.
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I have seen all these kids play this season, an your comments above were right on, with the exception of those made about Odorizzi.
1) I agree he is probably 3-4 years, maybe 5 away from the Big Leagues, that you are right about. So are most high school players.
2) Command issues, are you kidding me, the kid has 120 strikeouts and 5 walks, does that really equate to questionable command for you? I would respectfully disagree.
3) His demeanor is very calm and poised, which I guess one could mistake for “lack of competitiveness” - but anyone who has ever met him or seen him play (and NOT just just commenting on what they hear) knows he is a very fierce competitor … I would say ask the 30 MLB teams that sat in his living room or followed his every move this spring and they would tell you a different story.
As for Skipworth, Hicks and Weeks - right on, thoise seem to be pretty accurate based on what I have read and what I have seen first hand.
I appreciate your opinion and the kind words. As for Odorizzi, I’m admittedly and proudly biased against high school pitchers, so I might be guilty of overemphasizing his flaws.
As for the his command, I was just talking about the fastball, and those stats are against high school hitters. When they see a 94 MPH fastball coming at them, this level of hitter won’t often be able to recognize if it’s a ball or a strike. I would suggest that as the reason for his low walk totals. Besides, I’m not saying he’s a wildman on the mound, just saying it’s questionable.
Regarding his competitiveness, it’s not like I have any personal experience with him, just going be what I read or hear.
Are you kidding?????
he walks five guys in 100 or so innings and you talk about command???? i don’t care who’s standing there, or if no one at all, that’s increadible. has anyone at any level EVER done anything remotely similar?
as to competitiveness well you’re simply mistaken. his team won the state championship and he threw in every game. in fact quite the opposite. on friday he threw over 100 pitches in the semi’s. then starting in the fifth inning of the championship game he was begging to go close the deal. the coachs finally went to him in the seventh with one out. the hardest he had thrown all year was 94, in the seven that day he threw three pitches of the seven it took to finish the game at 96. not sure what you would call that but i’d say there is a little fight in that dog.
You basically said exactly what the other dude did, but really:
1. High school stats? Really? Does anybody in the world ever think they have significance?
2. For starters, Carlos Silva walked a total of 9 batters in 188.1 IP. I think that was at the major leagues, or something like that.
3. Command doesn’t mean you don’t walk many people. If you throw every pitch down the middle, you’ll never walk anybody, but you don’t have good command.
well i think i went a step further then the “other dude.”
command means you put the ball where you want it. five walks, did i mention one was intentional, so his rate of walks is less then the guy in the bigs…the point is no one can even play catch in the bullpen with a hitter standing there and not walk four guys inn 100 innings. he does have command.
i hope i put to rest the competitive issue.
get off your couch and go watch a game instead of reading “reports” on the internet. these high school kids can tell the defference between a strike and a ball.
i don’t know if the kid will make it but if he doesn’t it won’t be because of the issues you raised.
thought i’d up-date you on jakes command. two appearance in rookie ball, 5 innings, 1 hit, seven k’s and believe it or not, 1 walk. stay tuned.
My god, something is wrong with the world. First I get a guy who used 6 innings of low-A ball stats to try to convince me about one prospect, and now I get this guy who’s taking it a step further and using freaking high school stats, and irrelevant ones at that.
You clearly missed my point when I brought up Carlos Silva’s season. Silva is a guy who walks as few people as anybody in baseball, yet he does NOT have good command. He gets hit all over and out of the park. Would you say that a guy who’s given up 1276 hits and 130 HR in 1063.2 IP has good command. No, but wait, he only has 190 walks!
And now you bring up seven innings of *rookie ball* stats to attempt to prove some sort of point. Listen, and see if you can understand this. If you have the stuff Odorizzi has, and you throw it in the strike zone, you could be successful even until AA with or without good command. If you think that the average high school hitter can hit a 93 MPH fastball with movement while they’re also watching out for a big breaking 73 MPH curveball at the same time, perhaps you’re the one who needs to get off the couch. (The couch that I’m sure is in my mom’s basement, correct?).
One more time: Command is not about strikes and balls. Command is about putting the pitch where you want it.
i’m glad i wrote you as i’ve never know where to get into a discussion with an internet junkie “expert.”
you can have great “command” and not be worth a flip.
because the carlos guy gave up a billion hits with few walks doesn’t mean he didn’t have good cammand. it very well could be he has “nothing.” he could very well be putting the ball where he wants it and the big boys are just rocking what ever he throws or where ever he throws it.
i injected the stats from rookie ball only to begin a running tally for you so you can be held accountable for your call that he has no command……nothing more then that. so…through five innings of rookie ball he’s given up one walk and only one hit….no evidence yet to suggest lack of command….
i agree, if a guy merely throws the ball down the middle to some shlub who can’t hit, 5 walks in 100 innings does not mean the kid has command.
however, since i’ve seen the kid with my own four eyes i am suggesting to you the kid has command. maybe go see for yourself….hop the next thing smoking to arz….(i’m new to this, so is this where i’m suppose to inject something like “if your mother approves and has enough money saved to pay for your ticket and room?)
Another update.
Jake has now thrown 11 innings and given up TWO walks, four hits, two of thoses hr’s , one wind blown) 10 k’s. no sign of lack of cammand yet unless the two hr’s are reason for concern.
Lordy lordy, 11 innings in 4 short rookie-ball starts. That certainly shuts me up. Check back in two years, please.
I’ve personally seen Jake pitch and have talked to him recently so obviously I’m biased. Having said that, talking to numerous scouts, all have said that he is a polished, projectable arm. A scout from the Braves said he pitched very well and was surprised he fell to the sandwich round. Not to start arguing, because I know the success rate is indeed low, but he does have the make up to be at least a serviceable starting pitcher in the big leagues.
Hi Peter-
I appreciate your disclaimer about your bias against high school players, and I understand what you are saying about the reliability of high school stats as they apply to major league. And they might just be ‘high school’ players now, but I remember when Dustin Pedroia was the little kid who was ‘really into baseball’ that lived around the corner from me. Not to mention, in a nation filled with kids playing baseball, some stand out and become our stars. Jake stands out.
As for questions raised about his competitiveness, maybe it is his quiet, calm, and confident demeanor that keeps him grounded and focused. It must have helped him while scouts were watching his every move and he was able to step up his game when others might have fallen apart. And when he was surrounded by draft hype trying to help his team win a state championship. It bothers me that others hold it against him like it is a flaw!!!
But, then again, I am definitely biased!
Respectfully,
His cousin from California
Dearest Peter,
As I mentioned above I am only holding you accountable for your comments regarding Jake.
I am not saying 12.1, innings now, mean anything.
In the business world we always measure our progress. by providing you an update on Jake I am measuring yours for you and letting you measure yourself. I am assuming you are interested in the correctness of your judgement. I don’t assume you are mearly interested in making comments for the purpose of just talking. In the business world we are rewarded well or fired for our calls. Just helping you follow up on this one.
Still a long way to go and i will continue this service for you.
Thanks for providing the space.
I’d love to know how Odorizzi turns out. I don’t think anything he does this season helps in that matter.
He got rocked for the first time in his life the other day. 1.1 innings seven hits, four runs, 1 bb, 1 k, 1 balk. from what i’m told it’s a mental game now as the mechanics of a “big leager” are being taught and the result isn’t cared so much about. still got rocked….interested to see how he comes back from this as again it has never happened to him.
Here’s the line on jake now.
0-2 w/l
4.32 era
16.2 innings
17 hits
8 eraned runs
6 bb
17 k’s
They are throwing him every five days for mostly one inning. he had the one bad outing where he got rocked for 7 hits and 4 earned runs in 1.1 innings. he is walking more guys then he did in high school. he is being taught to throw the change a lot. (from what i’ve heard)
so here’s how it ended for the summer
11 games pitched
20.2 innings
18 hits
8 earned runs
18 hits
3.46 era
19 k
9 bb
one bad outing 7 hits and 4 earned runs in 1.1 in
or the era is 1.86 and hits are 11 (i know, horse shoes and hand grenades) Insteresting to see what they did with him. Two things really stand out which effect performance. 1) throw pitches on opposit counts. 3-2 count throw the change. 0-2 throw the fastball, etc. deffinately threw changes on counts as never before. 2) removed slide step when runners on base. this is a highschool move so the ball gets to the plate faster as catchers on the level don’t throw guys out so often. Instead had him kick high, not caring is the guys on first stole, as the catchers in the bigs will have the arms to throw those guys out.
So this was a teaching summer and outcome is not the concern. He comes back in the fall for prospect camp.
Still ont he right track and the fastball is still a winner.
Jake did very well in instructional ball. Fastball still sizzling and with a better group of kids. Instruction was good. He made great progress. To be continued next year. Have a nice winter in the great white north.
Jake is in extended spring training……he’s going along well.
Holding you accountable still as I promised to do.
Jake has thrown 27 innings and walked 5 guys. He walk
3 in his first 4 innings of the year…..cammand still intact.
ACCOUNTABLE??? Peter accountable??
Peter, I’m the one you referred to that used “6 innings of low A ball” to “convince” you that Zach Stewart was NOT the “worst pick” made by the Reds in 2008. He may never pitch an inning of major league ball, but the way he’s soared through the Reds system (high A to AAA in just one season)it’s easy to see he’s NOT the worst pick the Reds made. Anyone can make the predictions you’ve made, but why can’t you be man enough to admit Stewart is not the worst pick made by the Reds in 2008? I agree with Bob: you should be held accountable for the predictions you make and be man enough to admit when you are wrong.
After a month off due to soreness in his right throwing forearm, due to a new breaking ball, Jake is pitching again. Now he’s at 40.1 innings and has walked 6 hittiers. 3 of those were in his first outing of the year that lasted 4 innings. So since day #1 he’s had 3 walks in 37.1 inningings. I’ll beging one of these days to ask you to reconsider your comments about command as his cammand appears to be well in hand.
just holding you accountable as promised.
http://www.bnd.com/cardinals/story/966558.html
Just keeping you up to date my good friend. not a bad start. they even address his command for you in this articule.
Imagine my surprise when I see that people are posting here long after I am. I’m sure you’ll never see this but I’d feel better responding.
As good as Odorizzi has been (and he’s been truly fantastic, although he still walks a few too many for my liking) I don’t believe anything I say has been contradicted. He’s still several years away from realistically contributing at the majors and a ton can happen in that time. It just seems reckless to me to spend a first round pick along with first round money on a guy who has a long time to find a way to fail.
It’s the unsatisfying part about being a prospect fiend, every debate inevitably ends with “well, we’ll see in five years… maybe”.
Just look at Zach Stewart. He can look good, then look good again, then look good some more, but where is he now? Looking like a longshot to do anything useful at the majors.