Justin Smoak, Conor Gillaspie, Brett Lawrie, David Cooper
We’re running a little low on time, so I’ll be doing 4 a days. Gogogogogo!
Justin Smoak
The last of the top three college bats. Before this year started, many people (myself included) had Smoak rated as the number one player available in the draft - it was usually either him or Alvarez. The high opinion of Smoak was based on two big debut seasons: .303/.407/.586 in 2006 and .315/.434/.631 in 2007 with a combined 94 walks and 79 strikeouts in 504 at bats; clearly, he has shown a much better plate approach than Alvarez while retaining the same amount of raw power.
Smoak’s 2008 hasn’t lit the world on fire, although it’s hard to tell considering the scarcity of available college statistics. (Whither art thou, collegesplits.com?). He is not in the top ten of any major rate stats, but you can assume he is continuing his solid production considering he is tied for 8th in the nation with 21 HR and 4th in the nation with 22 BB.
The scouting reports are starting to be a bit repetitive. Smoak is a switch-hitter with plus power from both sides of the plate, and he is expected to retain his plus plate approach. Negatives? You guessed it, athleticism and defense. Jesus. We’re really going to get flooded with sluggariffic first basemen in a couple years’ time.
Conor Gillaspie
Gillaspie just isn’t all that impressive. He will not walk much, will not hit for much power, and is only an adequate third baseman.
What Gillaspie does is make contact. He hit .352 and .325 with a combined 65 strikeouts in 560 at bats in his first two seasons. That’s not tremendously impressive for the college level but this year, he is reportedly up near the .400 range. (Have I mentioned how frustrating it is to try to find current college statistics? Because it is). He is also a good baserunner, combining for 13 triples in all three years combined - currently tied for second in the nation with eight triples.
What does this add up to? Not much. Even if Gillaspie manages to become a .300 hitter in the major leagues - a lofty goal - it will likely be combined with a .350 OBP/.435 SLG and mediocre defense. He’s a fine player, but you don’t look for adequacy in the first round. In the third or fourth round, he’d be a decent, safe pick, but I certainly wouldn’t go any higher than that.
Brett Lawrie
The first Canadian kid I’ll cover, and he’s a somewhat intriguing one.
Lawrie is a high-school catcher, and he’s the kind of player that scouts sort of have to use their imagination with. He doesn’t have much experience at catcher, and his experience at the plate has been against largely inferior competition. If nothing else, Lawrie is projected to give you two things: Plus power, and plus arm strength.
Lawrie is a fine athlete, and could handle catching duties if he has more experience. He is in a similar position that Curtis Thigpen of the Jays’ organization was in; a better athlete than most major league catchers, but his lack of experience at catching may hurt him too much to be seen as a long-term catcher. Certainly if he is forced to switch positions, it would be a huge hit to his value.
Lawrie will be drafted by somebody who is enthralled by the possibility of having a middle of the order bat from the shallowest offensive position in baseball, no matter how small that possibility is. Personally, I would avoid drafting a catcher who hasn’t really played catcher, and whose only established hitting ability is to hit the ball really really far.
David Cooper
It’s been too long since we’ve talked about a slugging first-baseman, it’s getting scary talking about third-basemen and catchers and stuff. I shudder thinking about all the pitchers I have to get to; I want more Jim Thome clones!
As slugging first basemen go, this is another very good one. His first year was a disaster, OPSing .741, but he has made up for that with two spectacular years. In 2007 he hit .382/.450/.627 with 14 2B, 12 HR, 30 BB and 21 K in 204 at bats. According to CBS College Sports, Cooper is one of the 16 finalists for the Dick Howser trophy, awarded to the top college baseball player. Also, that site has a lot of current statistics, celebrate!
Cooper is hitting .370/.461/.720 with 13 2B, 19 HR, 144 TB and 35 BB. This boy can MASH.
Cooper is a tremendous athlete and will certainly contend yearly for a gold glove… oh how I wish I could type that. You know the drill. He’s an ok defender, won’t run very fast.
If a team misses out on one of the ‘elite’ college sluggers, you may take Cooper in the middle of the first with little or no dropoff.
We’re really going to have to get started on some pitchers, aren’t we?
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