NL Central Draft Review
Chicago Cubs
Best Pick: Chris Carpenter, who’s just now started to fully recover from Tommy John surgery. With a mid-90s FB and a mid-80s curveball which allowed him to strike out 88 in 73.2 IP, Carpenter could just be some improvement in his command to be as good as any pitcher in the draft.
Worst Pick: Ryan Flaherty, a college shortstop who will move to third in pro ball. Nothing terrible, but he doesn’t have any impressive offensive tools to suggest that he’ll be very successful.
Highest Risk/Reward: Carpenter.
Overall: Very good draft. Three out of the first four picks look like hits, and they added a couple of good MIFs in Cerda and Harrison who have a good shot to be productive major leaguers.
Cincinnati Reds
Best Pick: Alonso at #7, who is an absolute monster I had ranked at #2 on my value board.
Worst Pick: Zach Stewart, a short college closer who has trouble keeping the ball in the strike zone and in the park.
Highest Risk/Reward: Tyler Cline, a high school senior who has excellent movement on his low-90s FB and curve, but has had trouble controlling them so far.
Overall: Another very good draft, minus Stewart. Alonso alone would have been excellent alone, but the Reds picked up a couple of good pitchers and Alex Buchholz, all of whom look interesting.
Houston Astros
Best Pick: Jordan Lyles, a three-sport high school start (Baseball, basketball and football) who has excellent command of three pitches and the body to be able to add velocity to an 89-91 MPH fastball.
Worst Pick: TJ Steele, who struck out in 1/4 of his plate appearances; a huge red flag in the minors, loud clanging alarm bells in college.
Highest Risk/Reward: Jay Austin, a high school OF with plus speed, plus arm strength and plus bat speed.
Overall: They passed on Smoak at #10, which is inexcusable, but at least they didn’t do it for a dud. They’ve added a lot of ceiling in Lyles and Austin as well.
Milwaukee Brewers
Best Pick: The fantastically named Cutter Dykstra. He’ll likely be a 2B/CF, but he has good speed and very good offensive tools. Plus, he’s named Cutter Dykstra. How can he fail?
Worst Pick: Evan Fredrickson at #35, who managed to walk 61 batters in 75.1 IP.
Highest Risk/Reward: Brett Lawrie, who has as much power as anybody in the draft. However, he’s very raw both offensively and doesn’t have a set position defensively.
Overall: If Odorizzi signs, they’ll have a ton of ceiling in their first two picks, together with Dykstra and three very interesting college players at the end of the first day.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Best Pick: Chase D’Arnaud, who moved from 3B to SS and improved defensively. 29 XBH and a 1:1 K:BB ratio combined with a surprising possibility to be a major league shortstop give D’Arnaud a lot of value in the 4th.
Worst Pick: Pedro Alvarez. The huge price tag, the questionable defense and the questionable contact should have, in my opinion, pushed him into the middle of the first. Certainly not #2. Picked the wrong guy to finally open up the purse strings for.
Highest Risk/Reward: Alvarez or Tanner Scheppers, whose massive health questions were covered in his profile. He could bomb, or he could turn out to be a #3 starter.
Overall: I just really don’t like anyone except Chase D’Arnaud. Alvarez is a fine player, 17th on my board, but he was a pricey reach.
St. Louis Cardinals
Best Pick: Brett Wallace, who combines good power with a plus, plus plate approach to make him the 5th player on my board.
Worst Pick: Lance Lynn. To me, there’s no bigger red flag for a pitcher’s ability than giving up a lot of homers at a low level (ie. Eric Hurley). Lynn gave up 10 in 77.2 innings in college, and he doesn’t have the stuff to suggest that that will improve.
Highest Risk/Reward: Eric Fornataro, a high school pitcher. with good mechanics and a good low-90s FB with decent secondary stuff.
Overall: Wallace and Scott Gorgen are great, but there’s not much else to see.
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Have you been keeping up with Stewart? What do you think about the Reds worst pick now?
I think he’s pitched 6 professional innings. In Low-A ball.
You think? No he has. Again what do you about the Reds worst pick now?
I think the exact same thing as before those six professional innings, as it is beyond ridiculous to base anything off of six innings against low-A batters.
Except he’s gone from being a ’short college closer’ to being a ’short minor league middle reliever’.
CONCERNING CINCINNATI’S WORST PICK - “HAS TROUBLE KEEPING THE BALL IN THE STRIKE ZONE AND IN THE PARK.” WHAT DO YOU BASE THAT STATEMENT ON?
To start with, this year he had 21 BB and 5 HR allowed in 42.2 innings. Considering he gave up so few fly balls, the fact that 5 left the park is *very* concerning.
What’s with the interest in Zach Stewart? I’m sure I have far more prominent predictions that could be called out far more legitimately.
GOOD POINTS. LET ME RESEARCH & I’LL GET BACK WITH YOU. HAS ALWAYS BEEN KNOWN FOR FASTBALL WITH A LOT OF MOVEMENT DOWN AND AWAY ALONG WITH A GREAT SLIDER AND A PRETTY GOOD CHANGE UP. HAS ALWAYS GOTTEN A LOT OF WEEK GROUND OUTS. NOT MANY FLY BALLS AS YOU STATED ABOVE.
GREAT KID FROM A SMALL TOWN. YOU HIT A NERVE. SEVERAL PEOPLE TALKING ABOUT THIS SITE. ALL OTHERS A LOT MORE POSITIVE. BAD NEWS ALWAYS GETS THE ATTENTION. GOOD FOR YOU I GUESS.
THINK YOU MADE THE SAME MISTAKE A LOT OF TEAMS MADE IN LOOKING AT THOSE STATS. STEWART WAS A CLOSER ALL YEAR LONG AND THROWN IN AS A STARTER AT THE LAST MINUTE FOR THE TT VS OU GAME. IF I REMEMBER CORRECTLY HE SMOKED RIGHT THRU THE LINE UP THE FIRST TWO INNINGS THEN CAME OUT AND WALKED 4 OR 5 CONSECUTIVE BATTERS TO START THE THIRD. I WILL LOOK FOR THOSE GAME STATS AND GET BACK WITH YOU. SAY IT WAS 4. SOME QUICK MATH MAKES THAT .4 WALKS PER INNING, ONE WALK EVERY 2.5 INNINGS, 3.6 WALKS PER GAME. COULD BE BETTER BUT I DON’T THINK THAT WOULD QUALIFY AS UNABLE TO KEEP THE BALL IN THE STRIKE ZONE.
ANOTHER SUBJECT. WHAT IS YOUR TAKE ON ANOTHER LOCAL IN THE CINCINNATI FARM SYSTEM, B.J. SYZMANSKI.
FOUND THAT GAME. RETIRED 6 OF FIRST 7 BATTERS. 1 HIT AND FOUR STRIKE OUTS, ALL CALLED. CAME OUT FOR THIRD AND WALKED THE FIRST 4 CONSECUTIVE BATTERS, THEN GAVE UP 6 HITS IN EIGHT BATTERS. TOTAL TRAIN WRECK. WILL LOOK FOR ERA BEFORE & AFTER. IT HAD TO GO THRU THE ROOF.
STILL LOOKING INTO THE 5 HOME RUNS DEAL.
I REALLY THINK YOU HAVE THIS GUY MISCHARACTERIZED THOUGH. AS A CLOSER HE REALLY GOES AFTER THE HITTERS AND THROWS LOTS OF STRIKES. HAS ALWAYS BEEN THAT WAY THRU HIGH SCHOOL AND COLLEGE. MUCH THE SAME AS HE HAS DONE SO FAR WITH THE DAYTON DRAGONS. IF ANYTHING HE THROWS TOO MANY STRIKES WHEN WAY AHEAD IN THE COUNT. WONDER IF THAT IS WHERE SOME OF THE HOME RUNS CAME IN?
AGREE THAT IT IS STILL WAY, WAY, WAY TOO EARLY TO MAKE ANY KIND OF JUDGEMENTS ON THE PRO LEVEL. THINK THERE IS A LOT OF PROJECTION OUT THERE FOR THE FUTURE. HAS ALWAYS BEEN A LITTLE SMALL UNTIL SENIOR YEAR OF HIGH SCHOOL. HAS GROWN A LOT IN LAST 2-3 YEARS. WITH CONDITIONING, ADDED WEIGHT, ADDED STRENGTH IN BUTT AND LEGS, AND A FEW SMALL MECHANICAL CHANGES I THINK THIS GUY WILL CONSISTANTLY THROW 94-97 MPH.
WHY ARE YOU BOTH PLAYING GAMES WITH THIS MAN.WE ALL KNOW WHAT ZACH STEWART IS CAPABLE OF. BESIDES HOW CAN THIS GUY JUDGE ZACH ON A FEW GAMES.AS FAR AS I’M CONCERNED ZACH IS ADVANCING WELL AND WILL BE IN THE MAJORS SOON. THEN LET’S SEE WHAT THIS GUY HAS TO SAY.
FYI - Stewart is the closer for the Dayton Dragons.
Look, this isn’t anything new. The vast majority of players drafted into the pros of any sport were absolute stars in high school and college. It’s just very hard for people to believe that the high school hitter who hit a homer every other game or the pitcher who threw *gasp* 92 MPH might not be a major leaguer.
The absolute best draft prospects are far from a lock to even make the majors; for a reliever drafted in the 3rd round who was *not* a dominating presence in college, the obstacles are tremendous.
He *could* make it, of course. There are plenty of guys who nobody thought would make it, and did. Stewart could be a major league closer, and Justin Smoak could be a complete bust. The odds are just against it.
The draft is littered with people who have their own fan clubs that ‘know what he’s capable of’.
As for specific points: I’m not the one who’s judging Stewart on a few games, this was started by somebody who expected me to change my opinion of a player on a few games.
Stewart has appeared in the 6th inning of a game with a 2-run lead, the 8th inning of a game when losing by 6 runs, and the 9th inning of a tie game. That’s straaaange usage for a closer.
WHAT WAS HOUSTON’S EXCUSE FOR NOT TAKING SMOAKE AT #10? I AGREE, THEY WILL REGRET THAT LATER. THINK THEY DID GOOD WITH LYLES. GREAT ATHELETE WITH LOTS OF INTANGIBLES.
WASN’T THIS YEAR’S DRAFT CRAZY. OTHER THAN SMOAKE AND MAYBE ONE OR TWO OTHERS, WHAT WAS THE DEAL ON THE RUN FOR ALL THE 1ST BASEMEN IN THE EARLY ROUNDS? LOTS OF GOOD PITCHING PASSED UP TO GRAB 1ST BASEMEN. DON’T UNDERSTAND THAT. SOME GOOD HITTERS BUT A FEW OF THEM LOOKED LIKE THEY WERE GOING TO HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING TO FIRST BASE ONCE THEY GOT A HIT.
Well, Jason Castro isn’t a bad player, but he isn’t Justin Smoak. Whatever reason they had for not taking Smoak probably wasn’t a very good one.
The reason so many 1B were taken is because there were a TON of great sluggers in this draft. Absolutely stacked. I had 5 1B in my top 25 players, and Alvarez is likely a 1B as well.
WELL…………..
What about the 2008 worst pick for the Reds ? How do you feel about him now?
Regarding Reds “worst pick”….FYI, go to link below and go down to #6.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/prospect-hot-sheet/2009/268365.html