Top 100 Prospects Review (40-31)
Now we’re really going to get into the big hits and big disappointments.
40. RHSP Homer Bailey (Cincinnati Reds)
Year In Review: Bailey may be a poster-boy for big disappointments. He just isn’t the uber-prospect he was touted to be a couple of years ago. He will have a big league career as a starter, I’m certain; he still has decent strikeout ability and control. He’s not a complete bust, but he’s not going to be winning any Cy Youngs either.
Prospect Status: Down, graduated.
39. LHSP Adam Miller (Cleveland Indians)
Year In Review: Miller is extremely frustrating. He’s always been a good pitcher when healthy, but when does that ever happen? He’s out for the season with some icky finger-tendon stuff. I’ve always been squeamish about fingers. Anywho, we just have to continue the waiting game with Miller. The best ability is availability, and that’s the one Miller lacks most.
Prospect Status: Down.
38. 1B Lars Anderson (Boston Red Sox)
Year In Review: Anderson is having a somewhat deceiving big season. At the age of 20 and playing in High-A, a .313/.406/.493 line should be excellent. However, he’s hitting in one of the best hitter’s parks in the California League, perhaps the biggest hitter’s league in the minors. That SLG actually indicates some real concern about his power. However, his plate approach is legitimately great, with 54 strikeouts and 42 walks in 318 PA. At 6′4″ and 215 lbs, I would bet on Anderson developing power to go along with that approach.
Prospect Status: Neutral.
37. SS Carlos Triunfel (Seattle Mariners)
Year In Review: A .245/.300/.318 line may not seem like it indicates improvement, but in Triunfel’s case it might. From last year, Triunfel has slightly improved his strikeout rate (14.8% to 10.5%), walk rate (4.2% to 6.7%) and his XBH% (20% to 22%). As an 18-year-old in High-A, he’s been okay, but to be honest I was kind of hoping that he’d really explode and hit something like .310/.360/.450. He has a ton of tools and a good chance of harnessing them, but for the time being…
Prospect Status: Slightly down.
36. LHSP Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Year In Review: There are two prospects that I can just never make my mind up on: Clayton Kershaw and Cameron Maybin. My view of them constantly shifts between bust to star to everyday player, over and over again. I’ll remain skeptical on Kershaw; the control just isn’t there yet, as shown both in his AA and major league stints.
Prospect Status: Neutral.
35. 1B Kyle Blanks (San Diego Padres)
Year In Review: My support for Kyle Blanks was covered in an early post. The mammoth 1B has had an absolutely bizarre season; for the most part, the 6′6″ 270-pounder has played like he was 6′1″ 205. He’s hitting .318/.402/.479; note the decline in power which had previously been his calling card. To keep it short, that’s a fluke. Blanks is a right-handed batter, and roughly 85% of his plate appearances have come against RHP, compared to the normal 75% or so Since so much of his power comes against LHP, his overall SLG has suffered. No worries; Blanks had a .221 IsoP in June and has 4 HR in his last 8 games. He has an excellent plate approach (12.9 K%, 10.8%) which, combined with his power, gives Blanks one of the best bats in the minors.
Prospect Status: Up.
34. SS Chin-Lung Hu (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Year In Review: Hu, however, does not possess one of the best bats in the minors. After showing up with surprising power last year, Hu was an absolute dead fish in the majors this year. As usual, he was mishandled by the Dodgers, spending much of the season playing part time. In the time he did play, he put up an awesome .430 OPS. Hu probably shouldn’t be counted on to be an all-around excellent player, but I do believe that he possesses a decent bat, and he still has that potentially golden-glove which makes him a fine prospect at a scarce position.
Prospect Status: Down.
33. LHSP Gio Gonzalez (Oakland Athletics)
Year In Review: Unfortunately, this batch of prospects tends more towards the disappointments than the hits. Gio’s been extremely inconsistent, which the occasional excellent game (ex. 8 inning 1-hit shutout with 12 K and 0 BB, 6 inning, 1 run, 9 K and 2 BB), but for the most part he’s returned to his 2006 form. The strikeouts are nice, but they’re accompanied with way too many walks and home runs, going 90-64-11 respectively in 87.2 innings. I was hoping he could be more of a #2 starter, but it looks like he’ll be more of a 3-4.
Prospect Status: Down.
32. C Hank Conger (Los Angeles Angels)
Year In Review: Conger’s a guy I still really like, despite his season being hampered by a shoulder injury. The injury has caused most of Conger’s power to be of the gap variety, but when healthy he is a switch-hitting catcher with a very good approach and good power from both sides of the plate. The defense isn’t great, but I’ll take questionable defense with a bat like this one.
Prospect Status: Neutral.
31. RHSP Rick Porcello (Detroit Tigers)
Year In Review: Porcello’s been a bit of a mixed bag. As a teenager in High-A, you shouldn’t be very critical. Porcello has had excellent control with only 23 walks to 360 batters. He also boasts a just plain excellent 67.7 GB%, which I didn’t really expect from him. The downside is that he hasn’t been dominant at all, with only 47 strikeouts. I’ll balance the good with teh bad and say:
Prospect Status: Neutral.
The next batch of prospects looks like it’s going to be really fun.
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